Bhadohi Lok Sabha Elections: Caste Arithmetic in Favour, BJP Expected to Sail Through

Bhadohi is one of 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. Presently, Bhadohi Lok Sabha constituency comprises five Vidhan Sabha segments, namely: Pratappur (SP), Handia (SP), Bhadohi (SP), Gyanpur (Nishad Party) and Aurai (BJP).

Current MP: Ramesh Chand Bind (BJP)

Top Contenders: Vinod Kumar Bind (BJP), Lalitesh Pati Tripathi (TMC)

Date of Polling: May 25, 2024 (Phase VI)

Political Dynamics

• BJP Expecting Easy Victory: The BJP had won Bhadohi in the 2019 Lok Sabha election by a margin of about 43,000 votes. The saffron party is said to have the advantage again and after PM Narendra Modi’s campaign here on May 16, the gap between BJP and INDIA bloc is said to have widened.
• The BJP has changed its candidate and has fielded Vinod Kumar Bind from Bhadohi. Sitting MP Ramesh Kumar Bind has been dropped. Interestingly, Ramesh Bind is neither a very favoured leader in the BJP’s local or state leadership, nor has he done any extraordinary work for the constituency over the past five years. The sentiment of him being a laggard MP is being cited as one of the biggest reasons behind the party dropping him this time.
• The BJP’s candidate for this election, Vinod Bind, actually belongs to the NISHAD party, but is fighting the election on the lotus symbol. Bind is currently the MLA from Majhawan assembly constituency.
• Naturally, Ramesh Bind has not taken the BJP’s decision to drop him in a stride. In an interesting turn of events, it was said that Ramesh Bind had been subtly pushing his supporters to vote for the Samajwadi Party-backed TMC candidate. Ramesh Bind’s Facebook display picture is no longer a Lotus but has been changed to a bicycle. This has fuelled speculation that the sitting BJP MP may jump ship to the Samajwadi Party.
• However, the BJP is expected to win Bhadohi with relative ease, given how the caste arithmetic here is solidly in the saffron party’s favour. The biggest caste groups here are the Brahmins and Binds, both of whom have more than three lakh voters each. The Bind community is expected to wholeheartedly support the BJP, while at least half of the Brahmin voters will also side with the saffron party.
• Meanwhile, the Mauryas, Patels and Jogis are also expected to vote for the BJP en masse, providing the party with a considerable edge over the opposition INDIA bloc. These communities are also known for coming out in large numbers to vote.
• The BJP is making a meal out of the fact that the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine chose to surrender the Bhadohi Lok Sabha seat to the TMC. The subtle messaging the BJP is engaging in is that the TMC is an alien party to Uttar Pradesh. It is also highlighting how Mamata Banerjee’s party has institutionalised misrule in West Bengal.
• Besides, the BJP is also making it a point to highlight its work over the past 10 years at the Centre. Schemes like PM-Awaas Yojana to provide houses, electricity connections, water and other basic amenities are figuring prominently in the BJP’s campaign. Free ration for the poor has also emerged as a big issue expected to benefit the saffron party. Prime Minister Modi’s focus on infrastructure is also being highlighted continuously.
• TMC in Unchartered Territory, Hopes SP Can Deliver Bhadohi: As part of the INDIA bloc, the Samajwadi Party decided to give Bhadohi LS seat to the Trinamool Congress. Bhadohi is the only seat which the TMC is contesting in Uttar Pradesh.
• The TMC has fielded Lalitesh Pati Tripathi to take on BJP’s Vinod Bind. Tripathi is a Brahmin, and the TMC hopes it can garner the support of Brahmins here. However, there are no signs that the Brahmins are shifting significantly away from the BJP. The TMC’s gamble, therefore, is not expected to yield any tangible results.
• The TMC has no organisational base in Bhadohi, or in the whole of Uttar Pradesh for that matter. In Bhadohi, the party is completely reliant on the Samajwadi Party and Congress. Taking on the BJP without the support of these parties would have been a non-starter for the TMC.
• Despite having the complete backing of the SP and Congress, the TMC remains an alien political outfit in Bhadohi. Many voters have not heard about the TMC, do not understand why it is contesting from their constituency, and above all, are unaware of its party symbol. Voters who have traditionally voted for the BJP’s lotus, BSP’s cycle, Congress’ hand or SP’s cycle for most of their lives cannot be expected to suddenly vote for TMC’s two flower symbol.
• The TMC does not have any vote catchers in Bhadohi except Akhilesh Yadav. While the Muslim-Yadav combine is expected to transfer their votes from the SP to the TMC, that alone will hardly be enough to come close to defeating the BJP. On the other hand, the saffron party is armed with both PM Modi and CM Yogi – both of whom are widely admired across the constituency.
• In private, SP leaders are also confessing that the TMC has no support base of its own and is totally reliant on the Samajwadi vote banks. Effectively, the fight here is between the BJP and SP. Be that as it may, the BJP retains the edge in Bhadohi.

Key Issues

• Caste Dynamics: Caste will play a crucial role in Bhadohi. Interestingly, caste is expected to trump even the Ram Mandir factor. The BJP has fielded a candidate from the Bind caste, whose numbers range between 3 to 4 lakhs in Bhadohi. This community will largely vote in favour of the saffron party.
• As mentioned earlier, the Mauryas, Patels and Jogis, as well as Brahmins will mostly support the BJP. The TMC may rake in a few Brahmin votes, but it would not be of any meaning since the BJP has a comfortable lead among various castes.
• The Muslims and Yadavs are expected to side with whoever the Samajwadi Party tells them to vote for, which in this case, would be the TMC. Meanwhile, the BSP has also fielded a candidate from this constituency and will hurt the TMC’s prospects further as it divides the Dalit vote.
• Infrastructure: Among the biggest factors helping the BJP in Bhadohi is Prime Minister Modi’s image as a development (vikas)-oriented leader who has delivered a host of initiatives in Bhadohi and across Uttar Pradesh. For people who never saw a government in action, or one actively working to upgrade and build new infrastructure facilities, the past 10 years have come as a pleasant surprise.
• Basic Amenities: There is widespread appreciation for the Modi government’s welfare schemes, especially those which have provided underprivileged and poor households with a pucca house, water, electricity and LPG connections. DBT transfers have ensured that government aid can reach those who need it the most, while the distribution of free ration is also a big hit. These, along with infrastructure development, are reinforcing the idea that only Narendra Modi truly cares for the poor and marginalised, and therefore, must be voted back to power.
• Carpet Industry: Bhadohi’s carpet industry requires no introduction. Such is its fame that the carpets now placed in the new parliament building have been knotted in Bhadohi.
• According to the Uttar Pradesh government, the carpet industry in the Mirzapur-Bhadohi region engages nearly 32 lakh people and Bhadohi district alone employs 22 lakh rural artisans. In recent years, there has been growing disillusionment in this carpet industry.
• The Modi government’s decision to limit import drawbacks, and removal of subsidy has impacted the carpet weavers of Bhadohi harshly. Weavers and business owners also complain of government neglect.
• Ground inputs, however, suggest that the government has begun focussing on this industry and is working towards capacity expansion. In 2020, when the industry was in dire need of help as the COVID-19 pandemic swept the country, two virtual expos proved crucial in breathing new life into the carpet sector.
• As a result, handmade carpet exporters received a much-needed shot in the arm after foreign buyers placed orders worth Rs 250 crore. Now, these expos have become an annual and regular affair, in Bhadohi helping the carpet industry rake in much-needed high-value orders.

Demographics

• Total Voters: 19,40,675
• SC: 430,830 (22.2%)
• ST: 1,941 (0.1%)
• Urban Voters: 186,305 (9.6%)
• Rural Voters: 1,754,370 (90.4%)
• Hindu: 86.4%
• Muslim: 13.11%
• Voter Turnout in 2019: 53.4%

Development

• Kandhia Railway Crossing Overbridge: The overbridge being built at the cost of Rs 650 crore will provide much needed relief from the congestion caused at the bottleneck and will improve connectivity between Bhadohi and Varanasi.
• Varanasi-Bhadohi NH 731 B: The widening of Varanasi-Bhadohi NH 731 B at a cost of over Rs 900 crore was announced by PM Modi in December last year.
• Delhi-Varanasi High Speed Rail Project: The project spans a distance of 958 kms and is being constructed at a cost of Rs. 1.21 lakh crore. The route will cover 13 stations of which one is New Bhadohi in the Bhadohi Lok Sabha constituency.
• MSME Clusters: There are two MSME clusters that have been completed in Bhadohi at a total cost of Rs. 1,111.50 Lakhs. It would help boost the local economy and will create jobs.
• Railway Infrastructure: Foot overbridges were constructed at Bhadohi, Mondh, and Suriyawan stations, which also received new platform shelters. Additionally, a road overbridge replaced level crossing number 30 at Katka-Madho Singh. Bhadohi station saw the addition of four gents and four ladies’ restrooms, platform improvements using Kota stone, and the installation of a water vending machine. Seating was improved at Bhadohi, Mondh, Suriyawan, and Modh stations. Gyanpur station received low-cost shelters, stainless steel benches, dustbins, and a roof sheet for its foot overbridge. LED lights were installed at all stations along the Gyanpur Road line. Handla Khas station received a new ticket window.
• Amrit Bharat: Bhadohi is part of the central government’s Amrit Bharat station scheme which will give the station a huge makeover, which will provide world class passenger amenities and help transform the station as a logistical hub.

Explore in-depth coverage of Lok Sabha Election 2024 Voter Turnout, Upcoming Phase, Results Date, Exit Poll And Much More At News18 Website