After their hammering at the hands of South Africa in Pune on Wednesday by a whopping 190-run margin, New Zealand’s chances of qualifying for the semifinals of ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 have taken a major hit. With their third loss in the campaign, the 2019 finalists find themselves in the fourth position in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 points tally with eight points (4 wins, 3 losses) with two more games to go.
New Zealand have two tricky games remaining – against Pakistan in Chennai and Afghanistan in Bengaluru and both teams are also vying for a spot in the semis. India are looking to seal the semis spot with a win over Sri Lanka today while South Africa with 12 points are the current table-toppers and are in a good position to qualify as well.
ICC World Cup: Schedule | Results | Points Table | Most Runs | Most Wickets
Australia are third, level on points with New Zealand but have a superior run rate.
Here’s a look at the semi-final qualification scenarios for all the teams:
South Africa
One win out of their remaining two fixtures will guarantee a semifinal spot for the Proteas. They face India and Afghanistan next.
India
As of writing, India have three games at hand and need one win to seal the semis spot. They face Sri Lanka, South Africa and the Netherlands.
Australia
For a seamless entry to the semis, Australia will have to win all of their remaining games – England, Afghanistan and Bangladesh to achieve the mark of 14 points. It is easier said than done because Australia have lost the services of Mitchell Marsh, who has flown home to Perth for personal reasons, while Glenn Maxwell has been ruled out of the England tie owing to a concussion. If they lose any one of the games or even two, it will come down to run-rate and if New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan manage to win one or more of their games, then it will be a four-way tie for the remaining two spots for the semi-final.
New Zealand
Win against Pakistan and Afghanistan, and New Zealand’s passage to the semi-finals will be clear. However, one loss means the Kiwis will get into a scrum with the likes of Pakistan, and Afghanistan for a superior run rate. Still, NZ are placed well due to a far better run rate.
Pakistan
Not only will Pakistan have to win both their remaining games – vs New Zealand and England, they will hope Australia lose all their remaining three games, New Zealand their two games and Afghanistan at least one of their remaining three. That way, Pakistan with 10 points (given they win their two games) will be level on 10 points with the aforementioned teams and then it will come down to run rate.
Afghanistan
For starters, Afghanistan have an outside chance to make the semis. Win all of their three games and they can go up to 12 points and then the run-rate equation will come into play. But even if Afghanistan wins one of their games, some favourable results and a run-rate better than Australia and New Zealand could see the Asian team make the last four.
Sri Lanka
Mathematically, Sri Lanka has a chance to make the last four if they win all three of their remaining matches and reach 10 points and hope Australia and New Zealand lose at least two of their remaining games. A lot of other results will also have to go in their favour. Sri Lanka next face the unbeaten Indian side at the Wankhede followed by Bangladesh and New Zealand.
Netherlands
The Netherlands equation is the same as Sri Lanka. On 4 points, they can go up to 10 points by winning all of their remaining games and then they can force themselves into the conversation of run-rates with the likes of Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. But for that, they will hope Australia and New Zealand crash and burn in their remaining fixtures alongside the others. The Netherlands face tough opponents in Afghanistan, England and India.
Bangladesh
Can not qualify for the semis.
England
England will have to win all of their remaining three games with big margins and hope New Zealand and Australia lose all of their remaining games – or at least one team does. They will also have an eye on Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and the Netherlands and hope they do not win more than one of their remaining games. That way most teams will be on eight points as England and then run-rate comes into the equation.
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