Lucknow: When the campaigning for these Assembly elections began, everyone said Punjab will be far more interesting than UP.
This was just days after the last rites of the Samajwadi Party had been written by several well-known political journalists. Other, even better-known journalists, had said that Mulayam Singh Yadav will be turn out to be the ultimate winner, he was the pehelwan in the state, Akhilesh a mere pretender.
Even more famous journalists (some of them owing their fame mostly to Twitter) said Behenji, she is working silently, she will win, throwing in some bewildering kaleidoscope of caste equations and ‘elephant moving quietly through the jungle’ metaphors to make their points.
No one really spoke of the Congress. In fact, RLD had more words in that cloud. One jaankaar also said RLD could be the second largest party. So I had to Google who the face of RLD was. (Jayant Choudhary, it turns out.)
I merely nodded along, dazed and confused by the confidence with which people spoke about these things. I also heard the word ‘consolidation’ a lot.
I then rationalised it to myself by thinking that these guys have really burnt some serious cash travelling across the state, at a time when all newsroom budgets are getting more nips and tucks than a post-natal New Delhi mum.
Then it came to me, in a office-hours day dream. I too have travelled in UP. Every day; been doing so for the last decade. A full 1.5 km off the DND into Noida. If I tote up the kms over the years, I will hands down beat any reporter in UP right now.
So, having self-qualified myself on the basis of my travels in UP, here is my understanding of the UP situation.
BJP
Upper castes, lower castes, middle castes: none will vote for it entirely. Development card will not work because something needs to shown. So play the joker in the pack: religion. Ram Mandi, kabristan, shamshaan, Hindu power cuts, Muslim power cuts. After a slow start, BJP picked up. With that momentum, the Lotus Could Bloom in UP.
BSP
No coverage at all in the first two phases. Noteban hurt her most, it was whispered, no photos in the papers, no cut-lives to Behenji’s pressers and rallies, no buzz. Then, out of the blue, Mayawati became a this thing, this talking point, Dalit vote going to her, hurting the BJP in its run, consolidation, spoiler in western UP… and if this continues, it could be Mayawati’s Elephant Ride to Lucknow.
SP (and ally Congress)
Bhaiyamania, development, Aurangzeb, UP ke ladke, all the buzz was about Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi. Youth vote, Muslim-Yadav consolidation, Tipu the true inheritor, better road, bad law and order but an apparently functioning helpline for women. The Cycle Pushed by The Hand Could Reach Lucknow.
So, unlike others, I will stick my neck out and say it, based on my travels in UP: between the BJP, BSP and SP-Cong, I will put my money that one of them is winning.
If you’ve read a more definitive analysis by others who have extensively travelled across the state, please DM me at @mukhiaji.
And they said Punjab will be more interesting!
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