Latur Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Can BJP Repeat Its Big 2019 Victory from This SC Seat in Marathwada Region?

Hatchm

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posted on 6 months ago — updated on 1 second ago

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The Modi wave remains intact in many regions of the Latur Lok Sabha constituency, with issues of Hindutva more prevalent in urban areas and the inauguration of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir being celebrated with much zeal

Latur, which will go to polls in the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections on May 7, has benefited from development initiatives and central welfare schemes, making it favourable for the BJP to repeat its big victory in 2019 in the traditional Congress stronghold.

Located in the Marathwada region, this seat is reserved for scheduled castes and is among the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies of Maharashtra. It encompasses portions of Latur as well as Nanded districts. It has six assembly segments — Loha and Nilanga in Nanded district, and Latur rural, Latur city, Ahmedpur and Udgir (SC) in Latur district.

It presently represented by BJP MP Sudhakar Tukaram Shrangare, who has been fielded again by the saffron party. The other key candidate is Dr Shivajirao Kalge of the Congress.

The Modi wave remains intact in many regions with issues of Hindutva more prevalent in urban areas and the inauguration of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir being celebrated with much zeal. The BJP is also bolstered by its Mahayuti alliance with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP. In the 2019 assembly election, two out of the six constituencies went to the BJP and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, while two went to the Congress and two others are held by Sharad Pawar’s faction of the NCP and the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP).

Moreover, Archana Patil, the daughter-in-law of Latur’s former Congress stalwart Shivraj Patil, has joined the BJP. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis is confident that her entry will boost the saffron party’s fortunes in Latur and the overall Marathwada region. She is expected to take on Amit Deshmukh in the assembly polls later this year. Former CM from the Marathwada region, Ashok Chavan, also recently joined the BJP in a further boost for the party.

But, one major challenge that the party faces is the re-emergence of caste divides as the Maratha agitation led by Manoj Jarange-Patil, who demanded reservation for Marathas under the Kunbi (OBC) category, turned heads in the region and triggered counter protests by the OBC community. The Shinde government unanimously cleared the 10 per cent separate quota for Maratha to ease tensions, but the activist has rejected this quota and wants reservation under the OBC category. It remains to be seen how the BJP’s attempts to navigate this situation without antagonising either side fares on polling day.

Congress bastion turns saffron

Latur has traditionally been a Congress party bastion, with Congress leader Shivraj Patil holding the seat for almost 24 years between 1980 and 2004. This Congress fortress was breached only in 2004 when Rupatai Patil Nilangekar defeated Shivraj Patil with a lead of almost 31,000 votes.

After Latur became an SC reserved seat, the Congress wrested the seat back in 2009 by a narrow margin of 8,000 votes, but in 2014, the Modi wave propelled Dr Sunil Baliram Gaikwad into a landslide victory with a vote margin of 2.53 lakh. This victory was repeated in 2019, when the BJP retained the seat for a second term with an even larger margin of 2.89 lakh votes under Sudhakar Tukaram Shrangare.

The BJP has nominated its sitting MP Sudhakar Tukaram Shrangare to contest for a second term. He was a member of the district council before being bestowed a BJP ticket in 2019. Before entering politics, he was a businessman from an ordinary background before joining politics and grew in the construction industry by undertaking large-scale projects in metropolitan cities such as Mumbai and Pune, surpassing his ventures in Latur.

Shrangare established connections with prominent political figures in the state, ultimately leading to his nomination for the 2019 general elections. His landslide victory, securing a remarkable margin of 2.89 lakh votes, came as a surprise to many, considering his status as a newcomer in the political arena. His triumph in a stronghold like Latur, where the Congress traditionally held sway, was particularly astonishing.

Despite the long-standing dominance of the Congress in the constituency, exemplified by Shivraj Patil Chakurkar’s seven consecutive victories, Shrangare’s victory as a humble zilla parishad member stunned observers. He is known for raising several matters regarding the constituency in Parliament, and has reportedly maintained a connection with his constituents in the last five years. The BJP was confident that the anti-incumbency factor is not as prevalent here and, therefore, put its confidence on Shrangare one more time.

Another perspective, however, is that Shrangare’s work for the constituency was inefficient but since he possesses the financial strength required to win an election, the party finally decided to continue with him. In 2019, he was bolstered by the BJP’s grassroots machinery and the Modi wave. This time around, the MP wields the same advantages.

Congress in decline

The Congress has seen a steady decline in the entire Marathwada region, with Nanded and Latur being the last districts where it still has a base. However, its prospects in Latur are not great. The party has nominated Dr Shivaji Kalge, an eye surgeon, who is new in the realm of politics. With no prior electoral experience, Kalge is up against the BJP behemoth without much to his favour.

Kalge is from the Mala Jangam caste, which leads to hopes that the Lingayat community, a core vote of the BJP of late, would lean towards him as it sees Mala Jangam community as its “guru”. The Congress also seeks to play into the influence of the “Manoj Jarange factor”, relating to the assertive demonstrations advocating for the Maratha quota, along with the emphasis on safeguarding OBC reservation, which is likely to impact the voting trend.

The party’s biggest strength in Latur is the Deshmukh family, which enjoys considerable sway in the region. Amit Deshmukh and Dhiraj Deshmukh, sons of the late Vilasrao Deshmukh, a former CM, are MLAs from the seats of Latur and Latur rural. Voters from these seats are expected to be drawn towards the Congress candidate as the Deshmukh brothers have launched a grand campaign this time. Bollywood actor and Deshmukh brother Riteish Deshmukh may also join the effort in the last leg of their campaign.

While the Congress campaign is ongoing in the seats of Latur and Latur rural, observers said the campaign lacks energy and enthusiasm among party workers in the other assembly seats. All in all, the Congress grip on the seat has waned in the last decade, and the election outcome in Latur this time will decide its fate in the overall Marathwada region.

Here are the key factors at play in Latur Lok Sabha constituency:

Tourism potential: Latur has tremendous tourism potential. Located alongside the Panchganga river, it is often referred to as the ‘Kashi of South India’. Renowned for its religious significance, the city houses the revered Mahalakshmi temple, recognised as one of the 52 shaktipeeths. Additionally, the Buddha Park temple serves as a prominent tourist attraction, boasting a towering statue of Buddha.
Water scarcity: Latur is among the most intensely parched regions of Maharashtra. Recently, its administration imposed a ban on the transport of fodder outside the district in light of a possible shortage amid a drought-like situation in the region. The state government has declared a drought-like situation in 46 revenue circles of Ausa, Nilanga, Shirur Anantpal, Udgir, Jalkot, Devni, Chakur and Ahmedpur talukas. Latur city has been facing water cuts since January. Despite the water crisis becoming a years-old issue, voters have to fend for themselves and learn to live with regular water-related restrictions imposed by authorities. An initiative to comprehensively resolve Marathwada’s severe water crisis came only in 2023, when in a special cabinet meeting in September, the state government cleared a package of Rs 46,579 crore for the region out of which nearly 45 per cent is reserved for irrigation projects, including for work needed to divert water from west-flowing rivers.
Lack of industries and unemployment: In Latur and across the wider Marathwada region, the lack of industries is visible. In the absence of industrial development, 65 per cent of the population relies on agriculture and farming. The water crisis, however, makes agriculture an even more taxing mode of earning a livelihood. The lack of industries and overreliance on agriculture has also exacerbated the unemployment scenario. People are forced to travel to other regions of the state and the country in search of jobs. This is becoming a point of angst for the electorate here in Latur.
Farmer woes: The intense water shortage has directly impacted farmers, who simply do not have sufficient water to irrigate their fields. The crisis is such that across the Marathwada region, deaths by suicide have become frighteningly common. In 2023 alone, more than 1,000 farmers died by suicide. Interestingly, the intense crisis in Latur has forced them to look at alternative means of farming and selling their crops. They are growing papaya, pomegranate, chili, custard apple and other such crops that require little water. Many farmers have also started engaging more actively with the private sector, since it offers substantially better rates for crops than the government. Others, who are still dependent on government procurement and mandis, complain of receiving acutely low payouts for their crops.
Maratha agitation: The impact of the Maratha agitation was most pronounced in the Marathwada region in which Latur is located. Although the state government finally relented and provided Marathas 10 per cent separate quota in educational institutions and government jobs, the underlying sentiment of resentment against the government persists as Jarange demands nothing less than “reservation from OBC”. The feeling is that the BJP government dragged its feet on the issue for far too long. With activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who spearheaded the agitation calling for Marathas to punish the government, the BJP’s electoral calculations could be adversely impacted in the wider region, including Latur.