How Much Should You Trust Delhi Election Exit Polls? A Look at Past Track Record

New Delhi: Arvind Kejriwal has been predicted by most exit polls to retain the crown of Delhi, with the Aam Aadmi Party being projected to win more than 50 seats.

The BJP, despite a high-pitched campaign, is only likely to win 14 seats out of 70 in Delhi, while the Congress may get the saving grace of one solitary seat, an average of all the exit polls shows.

But how trustworthy are these exit poll results? According to BJP’s Delhi chief Manoj Tiwari, the exit polls have got it wrong, and the party will win 48 seats in the national capital.

An analysis of exit poll results in past elections in Delhi, however, shows that it was AAP’s performance that was underestimated both in 2013 and in 2015.

In 2013, the exit polls were split between predicting a hung mandate and a simple majority for the BJP. It did turn out to be a hung house, with no party crossing the half way mark of 35 seats.

The post-poll predictions for Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance were fairly close but exit polls majorly underestimated AAP’s tally of seats. The AAP won 28 seats in its debut election, surprising all.

Among the four exit polls – India Today-ORG, Times Now-C Voter, ABP-Nielsen and Chanakya – Chanakya’s poll was the most accurate about AAP’s performance. It predicted 31 seats for AAP won. However, the other two polls underestimated the party’s performance and India Today-ORG had in fact said that its tally would not even touch double digits.

The 2013 exit polls also predicted a decent Congress showing but it turned out to be dismal eventually. Most polls predicted Congress to win between 15-24 seats but it won only 8.

In 2015, though all exit polls predicted that AAP will win a majority, but they failed to capture the sweep of AAP’s thumping victory. None of the seven exit polls got it right about AAP’s landslide victory, with most giving it between 35-45 seats, with 53 being the upper range. The party had won 67 out of 70 seats in the assembly.

The India-News-Axis poll result was the closest to the eventual election result. Their exit poll had predicted that AAP will win 53 seats. Since the exit polls did not gauge the landslide AAP victory, they had predicted more seats for BJP.

All exit polls stated that the BJP’s tally would be in double digits with India TV-C Voter stating an upper range of 33 seats. However, eventually the party only won 3 seats while the Congress was wiped out and did not manage to win a single seat.