Bypolls For Bengal’s Six Seats On November 13: Will RG Kar Protest Impact TMC Votes?

The Election Commission on Tuesday announced bypolls for six assembly constituencies of West Bengal – Sitai (Cooch Bihar), Madarihat (Alipurduar), Taldangra (Bankura), Medinpur (West Medinipur), Naihati (North 24 Parganas), Haroa (North 24 Parganas). The seats will go to polls on November 13 and the counting of votes will be carried out on November 23.

While the Basirhat seat also fell vacant after its MP SK Nurul Islam’s death on September 25, it has been excluded as there is a case on its results, say sources.

Apart from Madarihat, which went to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), all other seats were won by the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The bypolls are necessitated as the incumbent Members of Legislative Assembly (MLA) contested the Lok Sabha polls.

Here’s all you need to know about the six seats seeing bypolls:

• MADARIHAT: The BJP secured this Scheduled Tribe reserved constituency in 2021 with 54% of the vote, maintaining their lead in the subsequent Lok Sabha elections. Manoj Tigga, the incumbent MLA, vacated the seat upon winning the Alipurduar Lok Sabha seat. The TMC aims to capitalize on recent gains in the region and challenge Tigga’s successor.
• SITAI (COOCH BIHAR): Jagadish Chandra Basunia of the TMC won this seat in 2021 with 49.42% of the vote, later defeating Nisit Pramanik, former MoS Home, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The TMC is optimistic about retaining the seat, relying on Basunia’s popularity within the Rajbongshi community, a significant voting bloc. The BJP, having lost this seat within their stronghold of North Bengal, sees this as a crucial contest.
• MEDINIPUR (WEST MEDINIPUR): June Malia, an actor, had won this seat for the TMC in 2021 by more than 50 per cent votes. She contested the Medinipur Lok Sabha polls and defeated Agnimitra Paul of the BJP. She got 47 per cent votes, even though it was a sitting seat of the BJP with Dilip Ghosh as the MP since 2019.
• NAIHATI (NORTH 24 PARGANAS): Naihati TMC MLA Partha Bhowmick won this seat by 50 per cent votes in 2021. The TMC in 2024 fielded Bhowmick from the Barrackpur Lok Sabha seat. Bhowmick defeated Arjun Singh in 2024, which the party considers a big achievement. Naihati falls under the Barrackpur Lok Sabha seat and the TMC is hoping for an easy win. Singh is determined to win this seat for the BJP to prove that he is still relevant, says sources in the BJP. Whether Singh gets the ticket remains to be seen.
• HAROA (NORTH 24 PARGANAS): Nurul Islam of the TMC won this seat in 2021 with good margin, but the TMC fielded him from Basirhat. Islam won the Basirhat Lok Sabha seat, defeating Rekha Patra, a woman from Sandeshkhali movement. Basirhat will also see a bypoll because of his demise. The TMC is confident of retaining the seat.
• TALDANGRA (BANKURA): Arup Chakraborty of the TMC was the MLA since 2021. He contested from Bankura Lok Sabha seat where he defeated BJP minister Subhas Sarkar. As Taldangra falls under Bankura Lok Sabha seat, the TMC is confident of winning this seat.

THE RG KAR IMPACT

The horrific rape and murder of a trainee doctor at Kolkata’s RG Kar Hospital on August 9 sent shockwaves throughout the nation, sparking protests from the medical community and raising questions about the TMC government’s handling of law and order.

While the incident’s impact on the bypolls remains uncertain, experts believe its resonance might be limited to urban areas, particularly Kolkata. Naihati, being closest to the city, could witness a shift in voter sentiment. The Left parties have attempted to capitalize on the incident, while the BJP has maintained a visible presence on the ground.

The RG Kar movement was of common man, and the August 14 midnight walk call, too, was given by a young woman. But the huge gathering, which was perceived as against the TMC government, was rare for the ruling party. So the bypolls will be a key test for the party.

TMC insiders have downplayed the possible impact. Kunal Ghosh said, “This time also it will be 6 vs 0. No matter how much the Left talks, they will be at 0 only. We will win.”

The BJP has started their strategy meeting and top leaders will visit the state in the last week of October. Samik Bhattacharya, Rajya Sabha MP, said, “The TMC will lose this time because people were on the roads — from Coochbihar to Kakdwip. People are against them in every way, so they will be at 0.”

RG Kar or Lakhir Bhandar, who will pass the November 23 test?