Narendra Modi is widely held as a dictatorial person who likes no second power centre and has been able to cut the RSS and VHP machinery in Gujarat to its size. But leading a national coalition is a different ball game. Is Modi up to it? Senior associate editor of The Hindu Mukund Padmanabhan joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. If Modi becomes PM, does it benefit for India? Asked by: gopal
A. Well, I guess that is hypothetical at the moment now, because we will never know how he will perform. But it is likely there will be a polarisation in the political sphere if he does, which is not going to be of any benefit to the nation.
Q. Is the corporate media which has vested interests desperately wants Modi to become PM? Asked by: WALEED
A. Don't think there is anything like a groundswell of support for Modi in the English media, which I am more familiar with. If anything, there is more opposition than support. I think corporate houses may prefer him as Prime Minister, but am not sure whether the English corporate media does.
Q. I think there is strong undercurrent in favour of Modi across India.I come from a small village in TN even there people are talking about Namo and Gujarat..do you see a possibility of BJP on its own crossing 200 seats in 2014 with 35+ seats in UP? Asked by: Prasad KS
A. Not a psephologist, so its hard to say. But I think he has an appeal well beyond Gujarat, yes. The only election in recent years, when there was a groundswell of support which upset all electoral arithmetic was in 1984, when the Congress won over 400 seats following Mrs. Gandhi's death and a welcoming electorate embraced the prospect of Rajiv Gandhi becoming Prime Minister. Could this election throw up a similar kind of wave, one that upsets all ordinary electoral calculation. It's both hard to say and anyway much too early to say at this juncture.
Q. Unfortunately, if Modi becomes PM than can India remain secular? Asked by: OMER
A. I think India will remain fundamentally secular irrespective of who is in power- we have a constitution, we have courts, and we have a legal system founded on secular principles. So it is unlikely that Modi or any other BJP politician can overturn the secular nature of our State merely by becoming Prime Minister. It is another issue whether society will become more communalised, which it well may
Q. Is the congress counting that if modi is projected, there will be internal rift in BJP and minority will vote in there favor. NDA will break and benefit congress. Any congressman talks of internal rift in BJP. Asked by: hasmukh
A. Right now, am not sure if the Congress is banking on such a scenario -- I think the BJP will back Modi in the event it chooses him as a prime ministerial candidate. The congress could be banking on the fact that allies will be harder to come by though. I doubt whether the BJP will split, but whether the NDA will be as cohesive is another matter.
Q. Hi Mukund, We have not tested Modi as PM in a coalition era, why we need to speculate on his ability to lead the coalition. Asked by: Jagannath Pujar
A. Hi Jagannath -- good question; Modi's success lies in portraying a strong unilateral kind of leadership style. whether he will enjoy the same image in coalition government is doubtful, to say the least. I think as a politician he must and will learn the art of compromise -- i doubt whether that is the problem. but Modi will stop being Modi, if you know what i mean, when that happens.
Q. What you think without coalition, how much Modi can corner the next Lok Sabha seats? Asked by: hasmukh
A. Very difficult to answer this question right now. frankly i don't know. all I will hazard, is that the BJP will get more seats with Modi leading the campaign than without.
Q. Where do see Sushma Swaraj if you see Narendra Modi became PM? Asked by: Rohit
A. As a kind of hostile but lady in waiting I guess -- it would be foolish and politically unwise to ignore her altogether, or make her the core of a possible party revolt or hostile faction.
Q. Hi, Forget Namo even if "Narayana" becomes PM will it work in a coalition government? PS: I strongly believe in Two Party System of taking the country forward. Asked by: Vishnuram
A. I am not sure about two parties, but yes, i do believe the westminster parliamentary system was never designed for as many parties as we have today. but we need a major tinkering with our electoral system -- including the possibility of introducing run-offs -- if we are going to limit or discourage too many small parties.
Q. Modi already has more work to do in bringing all the top leaders of BJP together to come to a consensus for PM. Managing a Coalition Govt. would be a hefty task for him. Your take on this Sir.. Asked by: MM
A. Yes, he has more work to do, but I think he has made considerable progress towards consolidating his position over the last fortnight. As for managing a coalition government, please see answer above -- in brief, yes it will be difficult and yes it will undermine his image.
Q. Is there a wave for Modi ... If yes then all the predictions of pollsters would fall flat. It could be 40+ in UP and 300+ all India. Asked by: Ahmed Nur
A. Yes, it would need a 1984 style wave for the usual caste and other arithemitical calculations to be upset. The question is whether there is such a wave.
Q. Out od 543 on how many seats do you think BJP will fight elections.. Asked by: Rohit
A. Don't think it will vary drastically from previous years -- so we are looking at a figure near 350.
Q. What do you think is the reason behind Modi's growing popularity among Indian youth, in spite of his non-secular roots and the controversies surrounding him? Asked by: Kepler
A. I don't think Modi's growing popularity is based entirely on controversy -- surely, the hype about his administrative skills and his image of being strong and not corrupt have also had something to do with it. after Manmohan Singh and after years of coalition governments that have weakened power at the top, I think a section of the electorate, including youth, want a strong leader and see Modi as representing such a leader.
Q. Do you think BJP has the guts to come out with Modi's name as PM candidate? Being a principle opposition party,they couldn't able to present a President Candidate. Also where is the BJP no? Where south is completely empty and there is no chance of BJD & JD if Modi is the PM candidate. Asked by: Raj
A. Some months back, I would have said possibly not. Today, I am not so sure, as I think there will be some sort of backlash within the party if they keep him out as the prime ministerial candidate. the BJP has shown no revival at the national level, yes -- and has virtually no presence in the south, outside karnataka, where the party is badly divided and weakened. but I guess the BJP may bank on some kind of wave in favour of it by presenting Modi as the PM candidate.
Q. I think Mr Modi and Mr Manmohan Singh will prove to be pole opposites when it comes to dealing with a coalition government. Your comments? Asked by: Abby
A. I doubt this abby -- i think the compulsions of coalition politics will make everyone behave in much the same manner. you can't afford to upset your allies, who will always be dictating the terms to you.
Q. How do you think Modi will help BJP to revive in UP+Karnataka+Odisha? Asked by: DB
A. I don't think Modi can do anything at the organisational or grassroot level -- the question is whether he can convert the election to some kind of presidential one, by pitching himself versus Rahul.
Q. Are Minorities a taboo for Modi? Asked by: zahed
A. They cannot be for someone who hopes to be PM -- already he has started making the right noises and portraying himself as a more inclusive kind of leader.
Q. In your perception, will BJP be able to win 2014 and form a government without Projecting Modi? as it currently seems likely. Asked by: Gaurav
A. Well, its hard for me to hazard a guess whether they can win -- but I think Modi is pretty much all they have got if they want to stand a chance of doing this.
Q. Don't you think we are infact looking at UPA 3 because Modi will not even be projected if current reports from BJP are to be believed? Asked by: Gaurav
A. Well, the UPA cannot be ruled out -- lots of people discounted them in 2004 and look what happened. So you could well be right.
Q. Do you see any other PM candidate other than Modi in BJP or Congress for a coalition govt? Asked by: SRK
A. A third front candidate? No, I think this is very unlikely.
Q. Why is there so much noise about consensus in times of rambling economy when in other parts of world we have seen leaders like Margret Thatcher & Ronald Reagan drive change through there own conviction only. Doesn't India need a leader like them and who would that be (mostly likely bet it seems today is Modi) Asked by: abdul waseem
A. But these leaders enjoyed a majority -- the last one who did in India was Rajiv Gandhi, and he blew it in a matter of years. It's not the lack of strong leaders, its the lack of strong mandates that makes a difference in this country.
Q. Hi Mukund..The BJP seems to be harping on their Gujarat success formula and Modi seems to be propagating that as the future of India..A party like that does not have anything else to refer to about policies during their time of governance or chooses to avoid reference when they were in power at the centre, but they keep talking about the success in one single state as the solution to all problems of India... Are the rest of the so called galaxy of star leaders in the BJP bereft of any ideas of their own that they have to depend solely on the Gujarat model of governance? Surely reflects a lack of leadership / strategy in this approach on a national level..Your take on this.. Asked by: JK
A. Yes it is a lopsided way of projecting things, if this is what you mean. But elections are rarely decided on the basis on sound reason and election campaigns are not won on the basis of rational strategies -- so what works for a party need not satisfy the kind of standards you expect in an election.
Q. Does Modi really has the credentials to be PM for a secular state like India? Asked by: Aziz
A. I think these credentials will continue to be suspect, yes
Q. Will BJP go for a pre-poll Alliance with parties like TMC, BJD, And TN party? What role is slated for MOdi, while he may lead the campaign many names are being heard. Without Modi being projected as PM in advance does BJP have a chance Asked by: Narayan
A. As you know, Modi reached out to Mamata yesterday, but she will have her reservations in tying up with the BJP in a state that has around one quarter Muslims. the BJD is a possibility and its too early to about the AIADMK. The BJP has no support in TN so its not really necessary for Jayalalithaa to tie up with the BJP unless she perceives a strong Modi wave...
Q. I think the way Modi spoke about Chandrababu Naidu and Mamata Banerjee at Think India dialogue and at Kolkata seminar respectively goes to show that he is ready to work with coalition. As far as VHP is concerned Ashok Singhal also already said that Modi is most popular and acceptable leader like Nehru. Cutting RSS and VHP to its size is just media perception. What's your take Mukund? Asked by: VJ
A. Yes, I think you are absolutely right. Ashok Singhal's remarks do not necessarily reflect the VHP, sections of which are very opposed to Modi. I don't think sections of the RSS are hugely enthused either -- Modi has shown he can win without the active backing of either in Gujarat.
Q. Do you think Modi has RSS support? Asked by: DB
A. Yes, he will have RSS support if the BJP declares him pm candidate, but that does not mean sections of the RSS will not have reservations about his candidature.
Q. While Modi is talking of " All Indians are Equal", why is this interpreted as Anti Minorities. As such in the last 67 years pro Minority approach has only a harmed them more than benefited as per the surveys. Asked by: Prem Kumar Gutty
A. I have no problem with the formulations all Indians are equal as long as someone really means this.
Q. With so many parties and era of coalition...now a PM have to a person who can please there allies and keep them together..even at the cost of governance...do you think Modi will give the kind of performance he is giving to Gujarat where his party is in majority.. Asked by: Rkaesh wardhan
A. Answered this before rakesh -- it will be a totally different ball game to run a coalition.
Q. With Narendra modi addressing FICCI and then think India.then Kolkata..has he started his campaign to pitch himslef as PM for 2014? Asked by: Randhir Sinhg ranhdwa
A. Yes, he has!
Q. I thing we stop generalizing the minority, who opposes Modi. This is the slogan prepared by pseudo secularist who is afraid of NDA. Nobody questions 1984 anti-sikh riots, because they are not considered as vote bank and they are patriotic so they have no problem with anybody. Minority includes Sikhs, Budhists, Jains, Christian, Parsis etc to name few except Muslims. Except Muslims, pseudo secularists, Congress sycophants, non patriotic and Muslim fundamentalists no other person or religion has problem with Modi. So it has to be specified Muslims and not minorities. Asked by: Satya
A. Well, that is your political view -- i am in agreement inasmuch as the Sikh riots were a real blot and that the extent of the savagery and the extent of the political complicity were underplayed because of the Congress' political strength of that time.
Q. Why only tag BJP of being communal..there are other parties in Idina like MIM Muslim league..congress has Muslim league as its allies..it has a state gov with this part in Kerala..when it come to them they are very secular even with communal forces..but for BJP it becomes communal..why is it so.. Asked by: Rakka
A. Here I am in agreement -- I think there are sectarian parties outside of the BJP. Our intelligentsia however papers over this and in my view, wrongly.
Q. What is one quality in Modi which make him favourite in BJP for PM post? Asked by: Rakesh
A. His image as a strong uncompromising leader.
Q. What is the difference between Indira Gandhi and NAMO?. Indira was a dictator. she finished all her opponents in her own party, worst she even finished all the democratic institutions in the country. and still she is seen as a "decisive" leader and namo is a dictator? This is a classic case of seculrism fasism. Asked by: anand
A. I think Indira Gandhi was hardly an example of a democratic leader. She may have been decisive yes, but as the emergency, the suppression of her opponents, her love for sycophancy all showed, she had a strong authoritarian streak.
Q. What is rocket science of coalition. If a weak person like MMS can run it then why are we doubting Modi. Asked by: Rakesh Katyal
A. I don't think coalition politics is a science -- its about knowing where to make compromises, and this is why questions are asked about Modi in this context.
Q. Modi is a pragmatic person: He does not make empty rhetoric. That's clear from how he has managed his state. Hence i feel that he would be able to manage coalition very well: whats your take sir? Asked by: SIVAKUMAR IYER BS
A. He will be forced to manage a coalition if the electorate votes such a coalition to power. I think he will manage, but it will destroy his image of being strong and uncompromising.
Q. Managing Coalition on 'Mandwalis'...yes, maybe difficult for Modi.. but if he could successfully forge an alliance on the plank of good governance, delivery towards a billion Indian aspirations above cast, creed and regional electoral equations. Would the public pressure make the partners to fall in line? We have seen Nitish sold his idea of Bihar Pride successfully in cast ridden Bihar. Can Modi sell an 'Indian dream' to India? If he does. Can any party afford to be seen or want to be seen opposing him? Asked by: Krishna
A. Its hard to do at the national level -- make partners fall in line, that is. whether he can sell the Indian dream is another question and i doubt whether people in the party can strongly oppose him any longer.
Q. Same thing was said about Vajpayee. but he ran the most successful coalition. Asked by: anand
A. Well, am not sure if it was the most successful as it lost the next election and was riven by differences and desertions.
Q. Sir, BJP cannot win on its own, coalition is the only way...Now what is the best option available for Modi that the power remains with him but yet the coalition parties are under his control.I mean which parties should he go for coalition..He cannot bank on the 3M( Maya Mulayam Mamta)what do you think. Asked by: Gaurav
A. I think all allies are potentially problematic -- whether for congress or BJP. so I think the difference between one and the other is somewhat irrelevant.
Q. Now Modi is looking forward for coalition as he sounds at Kolkata like speech. What you think? Asked by: alok
A. I think he was signalling that he is prepared to be more inclusive and open to the idea of a broad anti-Congress front.
Q. He can be PM, when he maintains good relation with the NDA partners. He maintains good relation with Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalitha, she may support Modi. Recently we have seen Mamata's Government was praised by Modi. He is trying to attract the new partners. My Question is UPA or NDA is going to get the clear majority to form a Government? Can we see a lack of experience in Rahul Gandhi when we compared to Modi? Asked by: Lakshmikanth Gelli
A. Cannot predict what will happen in the polls Lakshmi Kant, but Rahul Gandhi's lack of experience may be an issue if the contest is successfully projected as a Modi versus Rahul contest.
Q. Why should RSS or VHP issues come in the discussions at all when we discuss about a person's capability of running the country? Do you really think that Modi will fail to knit the coalition to run a effective Government? Asked by: Madhu K. Nair
A. I don't think the RSS or VHP will decide on who is the pm candidate, though their views may count. It will be more difficult for him to knit a coalition together than other leaders and I suspect you will find him being more open and welcoming in the run up to the elections.
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