What do the Uttar Pradesh elections hold for the fate of bigwig political parties in the state? The BJP is not holding back to win back power in the state again, which is seen as a precursor to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, SP-RLD alliance and Congress are also not far behind, attacking the saffron party on a range of issues such as the Covid-19 pandemic, women’s issues and farmers’ protest, hoping to repeat their former victories in the crucial electoral playground. LIVE UPDATES
Smaller parties, in alliance with BJP or SP are also in the fray, and may determine the crucial image emerging from Western UP as the phase-I of the UP elections kick off. Here is a look at political parties in the line, and what they expect from these polls:
BJP to Break Jinx?
All eyes are on whether the BJP, led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, will break Uttar Pradesh’s 35-year jinx and run for a second term. Almost all opinion polls have shown that the party has an advantage over others. In 2017, the BJP and its allies won a landslide with 312 seats out of 403 seats, bringing the party back to power after 14 years. In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP received 40% of the vote, the SP and BSP each received 22%, and the Congress received 6%.
The biggest question is whether the incumbent CM, Yogi Adityanath, will come back to power with a majority. While the opinion polls have tipped the scales in his favour, there are still some factors to keep in mind. In a state as big as UP, there are stories within stories and facts within facts. The BJP is the party to beat and if they win in UP again, they will be numero uno in 2024.
The image of CM Adityanath as a tough and decisive leader, as well as PM Narendra Modi’s popular appeal, are advantages for the BJP, while the Opposition would like to use unemployment figures against him. Many see the 2022 UP elections as a warm-up for the general elections in 2024, and a victory this time would boost the BJP’s chances significantly.
The BJP on Tuesday assured stricter ‘love jihad’ law, free power for farmers and Ramayan University in Ayodhya among other promises to 24 crore residents of Uttar Pradesh in its manifesto — ‘Lok Kalyan Sankalp-Patra’. The party has promised to impose a jail term of 10 years and Rs 1 lakh fine on an accused arrested under the ‘love jihad’ law.
The BJP further promised three crore new jobs in the next five years, including one job to each family. “We will make Uttar Pradesh the number one economy of the state by doubling the per capita income,” the party said. It also promised free bus ride to women above 60 years of age, a provision to increase the amount of Kanya Sumangala Yojana from Rs 15,000 to Rs 25,000, and said that sugarcane dues will be cleared in 15 days.
Samajwadi Party Hopes to Repeat Victory
The Samajwadi Party is the main opposition in the UP Elections against the BJP this time. Mulayam Singh Yadav founded the party in 1992, and it is now led by former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. The spectacular victory of the Samajwadi Party over Mayawati’s BSP in 2012 dominated the political map of Uttar Pradesh. In 2022, the SP will run alongside the Rashtriya Lok Dal and a few smaller parties.
Akhilesh also confirmed the SP’s alliance with Shivpal Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia). The SP stated that it prefers smaller regional parties as partners and will not form alliances with larger parties such as the Congress or the BSP.
In the panchayat elections held in April of this year, the SP emerged as the single largest party. A range of issues may work in favour of the SP: the recent migration of non-Yadav OBC leaders such as Swami Prasad Maurya, voter discontent over the alleged mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis, and the resulting economic setbacks.
RLD’s ‘New’ Fight
This is the first election for Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Jayant Chaudhary without the guidance of his father, Ajit Singh, who died of COVID-19 in May. Chaudhary, the grandson of farmer leader and former Prime Minister Charan Singh, will face the difficult task of regaining western Uttar Pradesh’s crucial Jat vote bank, which has shifted to the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Jayant has formed a coalition with Akhilesh Yadav. The SP and RLD have campaigned heavily to repeat their 2012 success, when they won all seven seats in the Aligarh district while running separately.
BSP Pitches Brahmin-Dalit Unity
Former state chief minister Mayawati is attempting to woo the Brahmin community and has called for unity between them and the Dalits in order to replicate the Bahujan Samaj Party’s performance in the 2007 UP assembly election.
The BSP formed an independent government in 2007 after winning 206 seats in the 403-member UP assembly. Her social engineering in forging a Dalit-Brahmin unity was largely credited with her victory. Mayawati promised that if she is elected, her government will work to ensure the safety, honour, and development of all sections of society.
“BSP is a movement of social change and economic emancipation, whose goal is to liberate the poor, laborers, farmers, small traders and other toiling society from the helpless and slave life and make them proper partners in power,” she said on Twitter on Thursday.
Congress To Remain in Margins?
The Congress was once a formidable force in Uttar Pradesh. With heavy losses in successive elections, it is now being pushed to the margins. In 2017, the party won only seven of the 403 seats available. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it won just one seat out of a total of 80, with its leader, Rahul Gandhi, losing his family stronghold of Amethi.
Priyanka Gandhi is leading the party’s charge this time, with a women-centric approach. The Congress is contesting on its own. In its manifesto called ‘Unnati Vidhan’ released on Wednesday, the Congress had promised loan waiver for farmers, 20 lakh jobs for youth and free education from KG to PG for Dalits. Releasing the manifesto here, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said that the party had reached out to all sections of society before preparing the manifesto.
Nishad Party Key in Many Communities
The Nishad Party was established in 2016. The party was founded to empower Nishad, Kewats, Bind, Mallah, Kashyap, Manjhi, Gond, and other communities whose traditional occupations were centred on rivers, such as boatmen or fishermen. Sanjay Nishad, a former member of the Bahujan Samaj Party, founded it. In 2017, the Nishad Party ran for 72 seats and won only the Gyanpur seat. This year, the party formed an alliance with the BJP. On Sunday, the Nishad Party released a new list of three candidates for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The candidates and their respective constituencies are Ketaki Singh (Bansdeeh), Ramesh Singh (Shahganj), and Rishi Tripathi (Nautanwa).
Dal Apna (Sonelal) and Apna Dal (K): Story of Splinters
The Kurmi community in the Varanasi region is the party’s main support base. Dr. Sone Lal Patel founded the Apna Dal (Sonelal) in 1995 as a breakaway party from Apna Dal. Apna Dal (Sonelal) was founded by Jawahar Lal Patel, who was also a founding member of Apna Dal and had the support of the party’s current president, Anupriya Patel. The party has formed an alliance with the BJP. Apna Dal (Sonelal) ran for and won nine seats in the 2017 elections.
Meanwhile, the Apna Dal(K) has also formed an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. There have been recent squabbles over seat-sharing, with Apna Dal(K) claiming that it was forced to give up back seats allotted to it. However, both parties insist that the alliance is still very much intact.
The two competing smaller parties are splinter groups of the Apna Dal, which was founded in 1995 by OBC leader Sonelal Patel, who died in a car accident in 2009, leaving behind his wife Krishna Patel and four daughters, including Pallavi and Anupriya.
Bhagidari Parivartan Morcha: What Will the Alliance Win?
Just a few weeks ago, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Jan Adhikar Party, Bharat Mukti Morcha, Janata Kranti Party, and Bharatiya Vanchit Samaj Party formed a front to contest all 403 seats. These are parties that have a strong following among Muslims, Other Backward Classes (OBCs), and Dalits.
Owaisi on Monday declared former state minister Babu Singh Kushwaha as the chief ministerial candidate of his party’s pre-poll alliance.
“If the Bhagidari Parivartan Morcha forms its government in UP, Babu Singh Kushwaha will be its first chief minister,” said Owaisi, who had earlier said that if his pre-poll alliance is voted to power, he will have two chief ministers in UP.
Mahan Dal
Keshav Dev Maurya launched Mahan Dal in 2008, and it is expected to have an impact in Rohilkhand and Western UP. Other Backward Classes such as Mauryas, Shakyas, Kushwahas, Sainis, and Kambojs are said to support Mahan Dal. It has formed an alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
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