The US president Joe Biden will aim to restore the confidence of ASEAN nations in the US as China continues to make efforts to bring the Indo-Pacific under its sphere of influence this week during the US-ASEAN Summit.
ASEAN members Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, however, do not want to choose between the US and China. The timing of the meeting comes at a time when war on Ukraine continues while Chinese aggressiveness in the South China Sea region threatens to destabilise the region.
China’s trade with ASEAN nations was worth $$685 billion in 2020 compared to trade with the US which was worth $362 billion. For Biden, the task is cut out. He has to show that the US can be a better trade partner and better security provider compared to China. The Biden administration has to present the US as a better economic alternative to China despite the pressures it faces in the western hemisphere vis-a-vis the war in Ukraine.
However, internal political situations in the US may force Biden to not enter into a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) framework or free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) from where former president Donald Trump pulled the US out of is unlikely to be revived and China used the opportunity to increase its presence.
The US will try to engage with ASEAN nations in order to make them part of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), according to Voice Of America News. The response has been lukewarm but the US will have to convince ASEAN to join this trade partnership as six out of the ten ASEAN nations are among its top 30 trading partners.
Ukraine will continue to weigh heavily on the meeting which will be held in Washington DC. If the Biden administration criticises China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific, then it has to convince ASEAN members that the US is equally dedicated to safety and security in the region despite its commitments to Ukraine.
All eyes will remain on the IPEF and also the Build Back Better World initiative which could offer an alternative to Beijing’s Belt and Road program.
During this year’s meet, ASEAN nations Philippines and Myanmar will not participate. Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing was excluded from the group and Philippines will be ushering in their new president.
(with inputs from
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