Bhagalpur/ Begusarai: The stage is set for the first leg of Bihar Assembly elections, which has turned into a bipolar contest between two big alliances – National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan. While the NDA comprises of small players like Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from the front, the Mahagathbandhan consists of the Janata Dal United (JDU), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.
But on the ground, the battle has confined to two political giants, who have become the face of the respective alliances – Prime Minister Narendra Modi representing the NDA and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has been touted as the face of a developing Bihar for the last decade. While both Modi, who steamrolled his rivals in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to capture the top political office of the country, and JDU supremo Nitish Kumar tout their developmental, what is actually forms the basis of their campaign is a combination of caste and community factors.
As many as 49 constituencies from across 10 districts from the eastern and central part of the state will vote on Monday sealing the fate of 583 candidates including 54 women nominees. A total of 1,35,72,339 electorates, including 72,37,253 men, 63,17,602 women and 405 of third gender, are eligible to exercise their right to vote.
With heavy security in place, voting in 13212 polling stations in the first phase will start at 7 AM and end at 5 PM except the Naxal affected regions. Voting will end at 3 PM and 4 PM in the booths situated areas where Naxals hold the sway.
While Central Para Military Force will be deployed on all the booths, drones and helicopter would also be put in service.
The battle is one of high-stakes, and has the capacity to make or break several political careers. Just like those whose fate is at stake, the voter is also divided, probably more than ever. Divided along several factors such as caste, desire for development, and choice of leaders, many voters say they are yet to make up their minds giving sleepless night to the candidates. But there are certain factors which are going to impact the results.
The first factor that comes into play is the choice of the two leaders. Everyone has his favourite. While many feel that Prime Minister Modi is the one who can change the fate of Bihar, several others are of the opinion that Nitish Kumar is the only Chief Minister who has development agenda on his plate and can work for the betterment of the state.
Majority of voters in different districts going to polls in the first phase concede to the fact that Nitish Kumar has worked immensely for the state. Be it the conditions of roads, or electricity, even those in the remote regions feel that the JDU leader has ensured that they reach the far flung areas. While some 'tolas’ (settlements) in the interiors of constituencies such as Sahebpur Kamal, Pirpainti and Matihani continue to await concrete roads, the villagers are hopeful of getting the same in a year’s time. Certainly, it would not be wrong to say that the work done by the Bihar CM since 2005 has earned him a good reputation.
However, a section of the voters feel that recent political developments in the state have dented Nitish's reputation. According to some, Nitish’s alliance with former chief minister and RJD chief Lalu Prasad, who is associated by the rivals with ‘jungle raj’ and is ineligible to contest elections following his conviction in a fodder scam case, has damaged his prospects. They feel that the JDU leader should have relied on his developmental work and clean image solely, instead of allying with the RJD in a bid to gain from Lalu's caste oriented politics. This point is being exploited by the BJP-led NDA, which has designed its campaign over ‘jungle raj 2’.
While this is the belief of people primarily in areas in and around cities, those in the interiors have a different opinion. There is a section of voters in those regions who feel that Lalu is the one who gave voice to the backwards during his regime. Recalling the period before Lalu's ascendancy, some veteran voters point out those from the backward castes could not even voice their opinion, let alone caste their votes freely. The scenario in the deeply casteist society of Bihar changed only after Lalu came to power in 1990.
On the other hand the factor going in favour of the BJP is that it is in power at the Centre under its charismatic leader Narendra Modi. It is being widely felt across the belt going to polls on Monday that Bihar often has had a government that’s not in power the Centre. Hence, they feel that the benefits coming from Delhi have not been able to reach the state. Voters are of the opinion that having a BJP government at both Centre and the state would enable people benefit from the different schemes and packages from the Union government.
At the same time, the lack of a face to counter Nitish is going against the BJP-led NDA. BJP is also witnessing massive infighting in some of its bastions. For instance in Bhagalpur, some rebels have parted ways from the party and are even contesting against its candidate Arjit Shashwat, son of BJP strongman and Buxar MP Ashwini Kumar Choubey. The party is also not taking any chances, as it has entrusted a pool of its topmost leaders, including national president Amit Shah, to tackle the situation.
In Bihar, the party and alliance which manages the caste equations best wins. Both NDA and Mahagathbandhan have been trying to build upon their existing vote bank. Exploring the mood of the voters in both rural as well as urban parts of the constituencies makes one realise that the battle has somewhat narrowed down to being one between the forward and the backward castes. While the forward castes are vocal about its choice, the BJP, those hailing from the lower strata of the society are mostly keeping their cards close to their chest.
This battle of castes has also emerged in the form of an urban and rural divide. While the urban population appears mostly in sync with the ‘Modi wave’, the rural segment concedes that it has got more than ever in the last 10 years and has fond memories of the Nitish rule.
It is certainly a close call in the first phase but a panaromic view of the whole situation suggests that Nitish may have the edge, as he has made his presence felt considerably even in belts that have been the strongholds of the BJP.
However, there are several smaller parties like Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Morcha (Loktantrik) and powerful independent candidates, who may not win on a seat, but are definitely going to impact results, thereby making or marring the prospects of either of the alliances.
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