The drubbing of the BJP in UP is a 'watershed' event. One might ask why employ such an adjective for by-elections which merely change how many are sitting on which side of the aisle in the state legislature. Well, here's why:
1) Even though people have voted in a single party majority in Parliament and a one-man government at the Centre, they do not want either the BJP or Prime Minister Narendra Modi to get too comfortable. The UP and Rajasthan bypoll results are a message to both written in bold letters: The 'magic' show is over.
2) There is and will always be place for regional parties in this country - be it the Samajwadi Party or Trinamool Congress. One party domination across geography had been rejected by the Indian electorate long ago on the ground that only localisation builds customisation - local party pays greater heed to local needs and concerns. So while the BJP might deny the Congress (another national party) political space, any attempt to decimate regional parties might be taken personally by voters in hinterland India.
3) A clever foreign policy and high-speed trains are all good, but deep in India the issues are still basic: Water, power, roads, food prices and jobs. The bypoll results actually ask Modi in the face: "Have you stopped looking at the smaller picture, Mr PM?" For a man who came to 7 Race Course Road riding on popular aspirations for a better life, this reminder actually might make him readjust his focus.
4) A political being like Modi will not miss the early signals of the bypoll reverses - coming as they are so soon after his massive victory in the general elections and in a geography which he had won so convincingly. We might see a change of tack in both his external communication strategy as also in his welfare programmes. The former might actually start in an institutionalised way, while the latter might get more geo-targeted and geared towards shorter-term gains. Modi would have realised by now that public memory is short and patience even shorter.
5) BJP president Amit Shah, who got his big promotion thanks to UP, just got an ice-bucket poured on him. He needs to take saffron hardliners like Yogi Adityanath, BJP's star campaigner, off the field. He also needs to realise that 'love jihad' can never replace development as a campaign premise. After Tuesday's drubbing he will be under tremendous pressure: Internally, there will be barbs coming in from the way-laid 'seniors' of the party, externally his political invincibility will be questioned nationwide.
6) Echoes of these bypoll results will be heard in both Haryana and Maharashtra, going to the hustings in October. For the Congress in Haryana, there couldn't have been a better timing. And, in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena will now be able to resist their ally-turned-bully a bit more effectively by exploiting its near-desperation to win the assembly polls.
7) Assembly elections will be held in UP in 2017. That may be still some way off, but Tuesday's results will re-energise the grassroot SP worker who had almost come to believe that end was nigh. Chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, often regarded as being helpless and a stooge in the hands of his father and uncles, might gain some strength and use it to beat his government to shape. You might actually see a more independent and aggressive Akhilesh now, and the Samajwadi Party claiming more of the Opposition space even nationally.
8) Finally, where does all this leave Mayawati? By deciding not to contest the by-elections, she has pushed herself into political oblivion as of now. To come back from there she will need a partner in 2017. Is the Congress listening?
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