Azamgarh Lok Sabha Election 2024: SP Faces Tough Challenge Against BJP in Yadav Family Bastion

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The Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat comprises five Legislative Assembly segments: Gopalpur, Sagri, Mubarakpur, Azamgarh, and Mehnagar (SC).

The Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency, one of the 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, falls under the General category and includes part of Azamgarh district. Presently, it comprises five Legislative Assembly segments: Gopalpur, Sagri, Mubarakpur, Azamgarh, and Mehnagar (SC). Voting for the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat will take place in the sixth phase of General Elections 2024 on May 25. The counting of votes will take place on June 4.

2019 Result and 2024 Candidates

The current MP of Azamgarh is Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In 2019 Lok Sabha Election, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav had won from the seat. However, in 2022, Akhilesh Yadav stepped down as he had been elected as an MLA from the Karhal constituency in Mainpuri district, leading to by-elections in the same year. Dinesh Lal emerged victorious with a razor thin margin of 8,679 votes.

The top candidates for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua (BJP), Dharmendra Yadav (SP) and Sabeeha Ansari (BSP).

Political Dynamics

A Very Close Contest

Azamgarh is poised for a very close contest between the BJP and the SP, with each side vying enviously for this seat. For the SP, it’s a matter of prestige as the Mulayam Singh Yadav family has traditionally enjoyed tremendous sway here. The BJP, meanwhile, has made significant inroads installing itself as a major player where it earlier did not exist. It will not come as a surprise if either of the two poles scrape through very narrowly in this close contest.

Since 1996, the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat has consistently been won by candidates from the Muslim and Yadav communities. In the previous two Lok Sabha elections, the SP’s candidates, Akhilesh Yadav in 2019 and Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2014 secured massive victories over their BJP opponents, Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua and Ramakant Yadav, respectively, despite the “Modi Wave”.

However, in 2022, Akhilesh Yadav stepped down as he had been elected as an MLA from the Karhal constituency in Mainpuri district, leading to by-elections in the same year. The BJP fielded Dinesh Lal Yadav to contest against Dharmendra Yadav of the SP, resulting in a closely contested battle where Dinesh Lal emerged victorious with a razor thin margin of 8,679 votes and assumed the role of MP. In 2024, Azamgarh is all set to face a repeat of the same contest, with the two Yadavs in the fray again fighting it out for this coveted seat of Uttar Pradesh.

The Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency, traditionally influenced by the Yadav community, holds significant importance in the Purvanchal region of Uttar Pradesh. Algu Rai Shastri of the Congress marked the constituency’s debut as its first Member of Parliament (MP) in 1952. However, since 1984, the Congress has faced challenges in reclaiming its position, as the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have taken turns in dominating the seat.

BJP’s Growing Popularity

Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua, a prominent actor from the Bhojpuri film industry, currently serves as the Member of Parliament (MP) representing the Azamgarh constituency in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua, contesting for the BJP, competed against Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the Azamgarh constituency. Akhilesh Yadav emerged victorious with 621,578 votes, while Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua received 361,704 votes, resulting in his defeat. However, his fortunes changed in 2022.

A considerable amount of work has been done by the BJP, which is serious about retaining this constituency despite challenging caste equations. The internal road network has been significantly improved and is a notable highlight of their MP’s short tenure there.

The BJP is embarking on an aggressive campaign attempting to woo Yadav voters away from the SP-fold. The party also enjoys the support from a considerable share of Dalit votes. Meanwhile, voters from forward castes and those OBCs have emerged as core voters for the party in recent elections.

The Modi-Yogi double engine government also has a following here, with voters swayed by the pace of development, improvement in law and order and implementation of welfare schemes which have made a strong impact here. Schemes like PM Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat and Garib Kalyan Yojana have made their way effectively, turning villages in favour of the Modi factor. Moreover, the Ram Mandir effect is evident among forward caste voters especially.

SP’s Family Connection

In the current scenario, Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Dharmendra Yadav is encountering challenging conditions, with Nirahua’ s popularity, vigorous campaigning from the BJP and the charisma of PM Modi adding to the mix. Furthermore, marking a significant shift since its establishment in 1992, the SP is poised to enter a Lok Sabha election without its founder, Mulayam Singh Yadav, for the first time. With the loss of the Lok Sabha seat to the BJP in the 2022 parliamentary by-poll, the Samajwadi Party has intensified its groundwork in Azamgarh as it endeavours to reclaim the constituency.

Dharmendra Yadav, a three-time MP in the Lok Sabha, is a cousin of Akhilesh Yadav and has been associated with the Samajwadi Party (SP). He represented the Mainpuri constituency from 2004 to 2009 and the Badaun constituency from 2009 to 2019. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Dharmendra Yadav contested and won from the Badaun constituency in Uttar Pradesh under the Samajwadi Party (SP) banner. He repeated this success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, in the by-elections of 2022, when Akhilesh Yadav, the chief of the SP, resigned from the Azamgarh constituency, Dharmendra Yadav contested for the Azamgarh seat. But despite his efforts, the seat was lost to the BJP.

Yadav is engaged in door-to-door campaigns and holding public meetings. He also has the support of several local political groups. This time around, Yadav is better placed and has an edge against his opponent. With the Yadav family seen as the traditional ‘netas’ of Azamgarh by many voters, and the entry of Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali into the party, Yadav is set to reap a consolidation of Muslim-Yadav votes in his favour. Guddu Jamali was formerly in the BSP and had contested from the party in the 2022 by-poll scoring a vote share of over 29% against Dharmendra Yadav’s 33.4% and Nirahua’ s 34.4%, thus playing a role in giving BJP the edge in that election. With Guddu Jamali now in the SP fold, placed as an MLC in the UP legislative council, the SP is confident that the MY equation will finally fall in its favour. This vote bloc forms roughly 40% of the total votes and can significantly boost the SP’s winning chances.

Previously a Samajwadi Party stronghold, Azamgarh has five assembly segments all of which are under the control of the SP. In fact, in 2022, the party scored a vote share of 40.3% against the BJP’s 30.5% in the assembly elections in the constituency. With the BSP scoring about 20% of the vote share, SP continues to face a significant threat from the BSP in a triangular contest.

The challenge from the BSP still remains, however, as the party replaced Bhim Rajbar with Sabeeha Ansari, a Muslim candidate, paving the way for a possible split in the Muslim vote bank, while also vying for Dalit votes. This will largely affect the SP’s performances more than it will the BJP and therefore, in a close contest such as this, it is all set to play a crucial role in deciding the winner.

Key Issues

Terror tag

The Terror tag of the constituency has been raised often. After the Ahmedabad blast ruling, the youth from the constituency have struggled to move outside. A topic that has been touched upon by Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah, who in 2023 had said, “Azamgarh known for terrorism in past has a changed identity today, During SP, BSP, and Congress rule Azamgarh was known for terrorism whereas under Prime Minister Narendra Modi it is witnessing development.”

Land Acquisition and Compensation

Land acquisition for the Mundri airport has become a major issue and headache for the government in the region. Farmers protested against the forcible land acquisition without adequate compensation for the majority of the last year. However, the incumbent MP has tried to simmer down the farmer’s agitation and have assured them that their lands will not be taken from them. Despite this, there remains a bit of disquiet among the citizens and anxieties of land grabbing by the government remain. Villagers who have come out in protest of the project claim that at least 25,000 people will be displaced. There is also anguish at the forcible nature of the process that has been carried out by the government. According to reports, in October last year, surveyors accompanied with provincial armed constabulary locked up villagers inside their houses and beat up women who resisted the survey.

Caste Issues

When it comes to voting, the polarisation of votes on caste basis is such that issues related to development are left behind. If we look at the history of Azamgarh seat in the Lok Sabha elections, Yadav MPs have been elected 14 times from this Yadav dominated seat. Due to the caste-based voting in the constituency, development has remained aloof and even the political parties have focused more on caste dynamics and social engineering to guarantee victory for themselves rather than focusing on the issues of the people.

Unemployment and Emigration

Despite a horde of infrastructure projects launched and completed in Azamgarh by both the state and central governments, there is a lack of major industries in the region. Azamgarh is a primarily agrarian district, with sugarcane and rice being major crops. According to on ground reports, unemployment has been a big issue as well as lack of industries, something that has been raised time and again by the people. Due to lack of employment opportunities, youth travel to Mumbai, Surat in Gujarat and other urban centres, however, they face massive discrimination. People from the region have reported that they have been denied employment opportunities and even housing because of where they come from. People have also faced harassment and have also been reported being publicly shamed for belonging to Azamgarh.

Welfare Schemes

Centre’s many welfare schemes have seen a massive on-ground acceptance and propagation in Azamgarh. The work of making Ayushman and Golden Card is being carried out at a very fast pace. In addition, the people are also happy with the distribution of houses under the PM Awas Yojana. According to a report in 2022, in just 4 years of being launched, 18,738 houses have been approved in the district. The only welfare scheme that has not taken off as expected has been the Jal Jeevan mission, which has caused disappointment amongst the people, especially those who have not had a piped water connection to their homes.

Drainage

Sewage infrastructure in the rural areas of Azamgarh is more than 20 years old and in a state of disrepair. According to villagers, neither maintenance work has taken place nor has there been an attempt to make repairs. People have demanded action and have also accused the local administration of corruption. This stems from the fact that the government at the state and centre are releasing funds but their effects have failed to reach the ground. In April this year, villagers of Nandana village of Atraulia in Azamgarh protested over the problem of drainage. The villagers have alleged that the Gram Sabha funds are being misused by the village head.

Infrastructure Development

Mundari Airport expansion

Modi inaugurated the expanded Mundri Airport in Azamgarh on March 10th. As part of the expansion plan a new terminal building was built and passenger facilities were upgraded. The cost of expansion was Rs.350 Crore.

Maharaja Suheldev University

A state university named after Maharaja Suheldev, the legendary 17th-Century ruler who is an icon among the Rajbhar OBC. Maharaja Suhel Dev State University was inaugurated on 10th March. It was completed at a cost of Rs. 108 crores.

Purvanchal Expressway

Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation of Purvanchal Expressway in July 2018 from Azamgarh. It was inaugurated on November 16, 2021. It has cut down traveling time from Azamgarh to Delhi by 7 hours.

Railway Infrastructure

Azamgarh station received new platform shelters, benches, dustbins, two additional ticket windows, CCTV coverage, and LED lighting in the station and circulating areas. A high-level platform and Wi-Fi were also installed, and Platforms 2 & 3 were raised and extended. Khorasan Road station saw similar upgrades, including new benches and shelters, a ticket window, and CCTV. A third track was also added along the Khorasan Road line. Smaller stations like Khanza, Muhammadadabad, Pharha, Paligarh, and Saraimir received basic passenger shelters and ticket windows. Across the constituency, LED lighting was installed at all stations, and Saraimir and Khaira each received a third running line. Finally, 29 stations received tap water facilities and toilets on their platforms.

Amrit Bharat

Azamgarh station is set for a makeover as it is selected in the centre’s Amrit Bharat scheme which aims to develop railway stations on par with airports, improve passenger amenities and develop them into high volume cargo centres.