The World Health Organisation published results from their study on global excess mortality which pins one-third of all excess global mortality on India. The WHO study discredits India’s official COVID death toll of 4.8 lakh and reports that by their calculation, India’s toll is closer to 47 lakh. As ludicrous as it may sound, we must make an attempt to understand where WHO’s figures came from and what has motivated the organisation to rush into announcing these numbers at this moment.
First, the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) that has been responsible for collecting and analysing global excess mortality data between the time period of January 2020 and December 2021 has completed their study within four months – a miraculous scientific feat for global data collection, let alone devising accurate methodology and running statistical models for each country. Second, the TAG members, many of whom have been making regular television and media appearances to discuss their recent findings, have been known to make unreliable statements in the past. Take for instance a US-based expert who appeared on a prime time news show just the day before, among other aggressive media appearances, had confidently announced a few weeks before the deadly second wave ravaged India in April 2021 that by the end of March 2021, India should see a very slow, steady decline in cases.
Let us consider, for an instance, that the results the WHO’s TAG team presented are correct. In this case, about 47 lakh COVID deaths would have created irreparable havoc in the Indian society. Basic sociology dictates that such havoc would have created deep resentment among the people towards the existing political leadership. However, since the pandemic began in March 2020, the current political leadership in India has overwhelmingly won most state elections starting from Bihar polls in 2020 and most recently in Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Uttarakhand. In fact, it has also won dramatically, with high margins, in states which have historically voted for alternate parties after each term, demonstrating the confidence of the masses in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party during the turbulent pandemic years.
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If the results presented by the WHO were indeed true, the numbers for COVID-related death compensation offered by the Government of India to families of the deceased would have also matched the 47 lakh figure. However, the compensation remains closer to the official approximately 5 lakh fatalities as also seen in our robust Civil Registration System – the Indian mortality data collection system. It is true that the CRS has much to work on, in terms of faster collation and digitisation, but discrediting the system which has reliably been used in the country since inception is rather obnoxious.
So, when no other data – compensation requests, public resentment or CRS output – matches the new WHO numbers, the real question that arises is: Why is WHO picking now as a time to rush into announcing these numbers from flawed methodology which cannot be scientifically replicated by any other groups to produce the same numbers? To understand the WHO’s underlying motivations, we must understand the nature of the organisation, its questionable role throughout the pandemic as well as the biases of its leadership.
Intelligence reports from various countries, including India, were picking up the circulation of a new virus in China from October 2019. However, the WHO turned a blind eye and fully chose to ignore the deteriorating health emergency in China. In fact, it only announced that COVID is an epidemic and a ‘public health emergency of international concern’ on January 30, after a closed door meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and WHO’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on January 28, 2020. Not only did WHO refuse to pressure China to let its team on the ground to assess the new disease and its spread, but it also waited for China’s permission to announce the pandemic to the world. Had they been more proactive, announcing measures months before, the world would have been able to protect itself by halting exchange of passengers from China. To add to this, Dr Ghebreyesus’ decision to look away led to billions of passengers travelling between China and other nations owing to the Chinese New Year celebrations, which began on January 24.
The natural question which now comes to mind is why has the WHO leadership remained so servile to China’s interest at the cost of protecting the world, a job they are entrusted to do? The answer lies in how Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was elected as the Director General of the WHO. In 2017, when many member states including the United States under the Trump presidency had become disenchanted with the WHO, China aggressively supported Dr Ghebreyesus’ nomination and financially stood by the organisation. In later stages of a tense campaign, there were several severe allegations against him that he covered up a cholera epidemic under his watch as the health minister of Ethiopia. Despite these, Dr Ghebreyesus, who is not a clinical doctor but a biologist and more importantly a career politician from Ethiopia, found himself appointed to the post of the Director General due to China’s push. Hence, in all his actions, his leniency and bias towards China become transparent. Even in the excess mortality report, the numbers for China show that the country has had fewer deaths during the pandemic than in a non-pandemic year – even as we see China’s biggest cities, Shanghai and Beijing, reeling under mass-lockdowns even today with desperate pleas for food from the Chinese citizens on social media.
The WHO has lost all credibility in protecting the world and has merely become a sound-piece for the Chinese political leadership, protecting and insulating China at every opportunity. Recent geopolitical developments – in which India finds itself more interlinked with global supply chains than ever before, with strong bilateral relationships with many nations, displacing China from many important structures – have ruffled many feathers. India’s exports have hit an all-time high, and the promise of foreign investments has only grown. It is India’s non-aggressive attitude, transparency and political stability that is attracting global business sentiment. Thus, India must be prepared to endure many such counter-campaigns led by international organisations with media groups, which are strongly influenced by Chinese interests and other influential global shadow groups who are determined to bring down India’s rise.
The writer is a policy and communications strategist. A Nation to Protect: Leading India Through the Covid Crisis is her third book. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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