Some Analysts Must Relearn Their Trade As The Modi-Yogi Double Engine Wins Big

It seems that our “political analysts”, especially of vintage left-secular variety and the political leaders, brought up on casteist and communal politics are not ready to move out of the paradigm that people have abandoned, visibly, since 2014.

Check every election since 2014, wherever the seemingly invincible BJP has lost or won. People have voted for development and change where they have found that the ruling party has become insensitive and lethargic in governance. If the party delivered well, it has been re-elected. Anti-incumbency has become a mere phrase. Voting on caste-based lines has been totally pushed to the sidelines.

In the latest round of elections in Uttar Pradesh, it is clear that the Modi-Yogi jodi or double engine has delivered and people have acknowledged and appreciated their hard work. What else explains a break from the 35-year-old tradition in Uttar Pradesh of not re-electing any govt? Most importantly, it has happened on the back of the biggest disaster of the millennium that saw governments thrown out of the power corridors across the world.

This is despite widely disseminated propaganda about corpses in the Ganga. Obviously, people knew better. This is why the voting percentage for the BJP has increased from 40% to 42.6%.

We can wait for sectoral analysis of the voting pattern, but it is obvious that aspirations and acceptance of the last-mile delivery of relief during Covid and overall ease of living with DBT, toilets, homes, gas and more has worked wonders and given dignity to the poorest of the citizens, especially women.

Having witnessed the speedy and targeted delivery, people have realised that they were fooled for 7 decades by so-called socialist champions who only inaugurated schemes and then invented excuses of difficulty and lack of resources. And they have become impatient after suffering for three generations under Garibi Hatao politicians. They saw only the politicians’ garibi being removed.

Also Read: The Secret Sauce Behind BJP’s Surprise Victory in Uttarakhand

This impatience has no ideology. We have seen BJP being shown the door in a few places. We have seen some parties being decimated slowly into oblivion. In this election, we have seen the BJP in a bind in Goa and Uttarakhand.

We have also seen people ready to give a chance to a relatively new party in Punjab with a dubious record and a leader who is known for his “imbalance” any time of the day.

In all this, we see that except for a particular sub-group, no other community or caste has voted en-masse on the basis of caste or communal identity. The reason for a win or a loss is simply the measure of whether the voters have seen any improvement in their lives.

Look at women voters. They are no more dictated by the head of the household or mukhiya. They have voted for any politician who can make their lives easier. No caste loyalty exists for her. This simply proves that good economics breaks caste barriers.

Also Read: In Uttar Pradesh, It is Game Yogi, Set BJP, Match Modi

Despite all this being clear as day, why is it that our analysts and our psephologists cannot get over their obsession with caste-based political analysis? Their lack of understanding or readiness to learn anew is obvious when they look at Muslims as one block but Hindus as caste groups even now. It is evident that there is a clear division in Muslim and Christian communities too. They vote based on their subgroups. Ashraf and Ajlaf Muslims don’t see eye to eye. the Pasmanda Muslim group is rebellious against Ashrafs. And Bihar has clearly illustrated it. I am not even talking about the huge division between Sunnis and Shias. These group and sub-group divisions too shall melt away as voters mature.

Therefore, this election has clear lessons. The voters’ message to politicians is “deliver or quit” and the message for a certain section of analysts is simply that they should reconsider the veracity of their assumptions and relearn their trade.

The writer is a well-known author and columnist. He has written seven books on RSS and done a Ph.D. on RSS. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.