Punjab heads into Assembly elections in an atmosphere of deep discontent. The convergence of multiple crises – agrarian, ecological, economic – has created a state of flux and a strong impulse towards change.
Powered by a ‘no progress without change’ sentiment, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) poses a formidable challenge to the incumbent Congress. While opinion polls have given AAP a majority, the highly fragmented political scenario makes it hard to predict outcomes.
The key players are attempting to leverage Punjab’s developmental discontents. There is a pervasive awareness that the state is on the brink, and must progress or perish. Hence, the focus on ‘nawa Punjab’.
The resurgent Aam Aadmi Party has a clear advantage in this respect. As a relatively new force in a state exhausted with politics-as-usual and disenchanted with the same old faces, it has positioned itself as a harbinger of change.
AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has unveiled a 10-point ‘Punjab model’, drawing on his experience in Delhi. His electoral promises are in tune with Punjab’s freebie culture, and his sterling track record in health and education is standing him in good stead.
The Congress, for its part, has signalled a shift in the balance of power between the dominant Jat Sikhs and the disadvantaged sections by declaring incumbent Charanjit Singh Channi as its chief ministerial nominee.
The BJP-Punjab Lok Congress-Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt) alliance is harping on its ‘nawa Punjab bhajpa de naal’ slogan, promising infrastructure and jobs through a big push towards agro-based industries and rural entrepreneurship.
Identity Politics Will Play a Role
Although there is a general conviction that Punjab urgently needs a new deal, identity politics will play a big role. All the four main players are aggressively targeting Dalits, Jat Sikhs, OBCs and non-Dalit Hindus across the three distinct regions of the state.
The two front-runners, AAP and Congress, are in an intense tug-of-war over the 32 per cent Dalit vote. The BJP’s outreach efforts, including the promise of a Dalit CM, do not have much resonance. Nor does the BSP-SAD alliance. Mayawati’s party has been steadily losing ground in the state.
AAP had made serious inroads into the traditional Congress vote-bank in 2017, securing 20 per cent of the Dalit Sikh vote and winning nine reserved seats. Last year, it was the flavour of the season in Dalit bastis with its anti-elite campaign and welfare agenda.
The elevation and projection of Channi appears to have wrested the social justice card from AAP. Despite the latter’s best efforts, the Dalit vote is likely to consolidate behind a Dalit CM.
The Congress’ fear is that this may lead to reverse consolidation, and attenuate its Jat Sikh base. The very public spats between Jat Sikh Pradesh Congress Committee chief Navjot Singh Sidhu and the CM have not helped matters, particularly after Sidhu refused to address a rally by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
The Jat Sikhs, who account for 21 per cent of the popular vote, are likely to be divided between Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and AAP. The former polls highest among Jat Sikhs, although it lost a slice of vote share to AAP in 2017. While Jat Sikhs tend to distrust the BJP, some may opt for the NDA alliance featuring former CM Amarinder Singh and SAD(S) leader Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa.
Reverse consolidation of non-Dalit Hindu votes could work to the advantage of both AAP and BJP-led alliance. In 2017, the Congress polled highest among Brahmins, Banias and Punjabi Khatris, as voters were spooked by the perception that AAP was close to separatist groups.
This time, AAP has carefully sidestepped the issue, but BJP-Amarinder Singh combine exerts considerable influence among urban non-Dalit Hindus. ‘Captain’ is playing the nationalist card, which worked to excellent effect in 2019, to target Sidhu.
The OBC vote is usually split between Congress and SAD, with the former polling somewhat higher in this segment. However, the perceived marginalisation of OBCs in the Congress is a long-standing grievance. In 2017, AAP took away a solid chunk of OBC votes, at the expense of both Congress and SAD.
The BJP has made a strong push to woo the OBCs, by accommodating Giani Zail Singh’s grandson, Inderjeet Singh, and appointing former police officer Iqbal Singh Lalpura as head of the National Minorities Commission. The SAD, too, has promised to increase job quotas. But AAP appears to have the advantage among OBCs.
Region-wise Analysis
In the Malwa region, which has 69 of the 117 assembly seats, AAP is in a good space. In 2017, it had won 18 of its 20 seats from here. While many of the wealthiest landowners in Punjab are from this region, it also has a very large number of smallholdings and accounts for the majority of farmers’ suicides.
Although AAP’s support of the agitation against the farm laws had earned it considerable goodwill among the small farmers, it fell out with the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM), the farmers’ front contesting the elections. The SSM has been steadily losing traction and, as a vote-cutter, will affect AAP and Congress votes alike. Both Channi and AAP’s chief ministerial face, Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann, are from Malwa.
The fertile Doaba region has the highest proportion of Dalits, so Congress hopes to do well there. Although most holdings in this region are small, it is an NRI hub with considerable emphasis on education. Small wonder all four parties are promising financial support to Punjab students who plan to study abroad.
The big question for the Congress is whether it can retain the border region of Majha, the state’s ‘panthic belt’, which gave it a resounding mandate in 2017. The Shiromani Akali Dal is at a natural advantage in this region, and is likely to make significant gains. While the Majha vote tends to go one way, this time it may split between SAD and Congress. AAP has so far failed to penetrate this region, although it has scattered pockets of influence.
Majha will witness several high-profile contests, notably in Amritsar (East), where Sidhu takes on former SAD minister Bikram Singh Majithia in an election that promises to go down to the wire.
Regardless of who loses, will Punjab win? No party has yet come to grips with the wide-ranging issues in Punjab: endemic corruption, sacrilege, drug menace, multiple mafias (sand, transport, liquor, cable), poor infrastructure, rural debt, deindustrialsation and unemployment.
Bhavdeep Kang is a freelance writer and author of Gurus: Stories of India’s Leading Babas and Just Transferred: The Untold Story of Ashok Khemka. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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