The confrontation between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) may escalate, the US Intelligence Community has warned, hinting at a possible militant attack on India.
Noting that Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant and terrorist groups, the community — in its annual threat assessment report — claimed that the possible confrontations along the LoC like the one in 2021 are of major concern for the US.
The report warned that there is a risk of potential escalation. “This is more probable given the attitude of New Delhi’s current government vis-à-vis Pakistan’s alleged support for anti-India groups,” it noted.
“Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” the report added.
India has responded to major terror attacks, both at Uri and Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir, perpetrated by Pakistani terrorists with surgical strikes.
The report also predicted that ties between India and China would remain strained after the 2020 Galwan clash. Noting the military posturing by both the countries along the border, the report warned about the elevated risk of armed confrontation that “might involve direct threats to US persons and interests, and calls for US intervention”.
Among other possible flashpoints, the Intel community pointed to the threat to the United States from Islamic State Central (Iraq & Syria), saying though it has weakened, it remains a point of concern. “Particularly, the Khorasan branch (ISKP) has the intention to strike the West and outside of Afghanistan, where it continues to challenge the Taliban’s rule,” the report said.
It also claimed that al-Qaeda is adapting to the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan after the death of Zawahiri while keeping a safe haven in Iran. Major threats for the US and the West come from Al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and East/West Africa, it added.
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