Exit Polls for 5 States: BJP’s Raj, Thriller in MP; Cong-quest in Chhattisgarh, Telangana

An edge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Rajasthan and even in Madhya Pradesh and lead for the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana – this is the exit poll prediction for the 2023 Vidhan Sabha (Assembly) elections to the five states held from November 7-30.

The five states comprise a total of 679 assembly constituencies. The counting of votes is slated for December 3, 2023.

MP: TOUGH FIGHT BETWEEN CONG & BJP

Madhya Pradesh voted for its 230 seats on November 17, with a voter turnout of 77.15%. In 2018, the Congress had won 114 seats, BJP 109 and others 7.

TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has predicted 106-116 seats for the BJP, 111-121 for the Congress and 7 for others. Jan Ki Baat has predicted 100-123 for the BJP, 102-125 for the Congress and 5 for others. According to Republic-Matrize, the BJP could win 118-130 seats, the Congress 97-107, and others 0-2. Poll of Polls has predicted a win of 116 seats for the BJP, 111 for the Congress and 3 for others. News14-Today’s Chanakya has predicted a clear lead of 151 for the BJP, 74 for the Congress and 5 for others. India Today-Axis My India has predicted 140-162 seats for the BJP, 68-90 for the Congress and 0-3 for others. According to Times Now-ETG Research, the BJP could win 105-117 seats, Congress 109-125 and others 1-5. ABP-C Voter has predicted 88-112 seats for the BJP, 113-137 for the Congress and 2-8 for others. India TV-CNX has predicted 140-159 seats for the BJP, 70-80 for the Congress and 0-2 for others.

The campaigning saw a fight between MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, although he was not declared the CM face, and his predecessor and rival Kamal Nath. The BJP pitched Modi ahead of the voters to beat anti-incumbency.

RAJASTHAN: BJP CLEAN SWEEP?

According to the exit polls, the BJP may emerge the leader in Rajasthan, which went to polls on November 25, with a voter turnout of 75.45%. A total of 101 is needed to win the 200-seat state. In 2018, the ruling Congress, led by Ashok Gehlot, had won 100 seats, BJP 73 and others 27.

Jan Ki Baat has predicted 62-85 seats for the Congress, 100-122 for the BJP and 14-15 for others. According to Matrize, the BJP could win 115-130 seats, Congress 65-75 and others 12-19. Polstrat has predicted 100-110 for the BJP, 90-100 for the Congress and 5-15 for others. Chanakya has predicted 101 seats for the BJP, 89 for the Congress and 0-9 for others. PMARQ has predicted 105-125 seats for the BJP, 69-81 for the Congress and 5-15 for others. ETG has predicted 108-128 seats for the BJP, 56-72 for Congress and 13-21 for others. Axis My India has given 96 seats to the Congress, 90 to the BJP and 13 to others. ABP-C Voter has projected 94-114 seats for the BJP, 71-91 for the Congress and 9-19 for others. CNX has predicted 80-90 for the BJP, 94-104 for the Congress and 14-18 for others.

The Congress and BJP had put up strong campaigns in Rajasthan. Congress leaders, including Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, state unit president Govind Singh Dotasra and former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot, and BJP leaders, including former chief minister Vasundhara Raje, leader of opposition Rajendra Rathore and deputy leader of opposition Satish Poonia were among the candidates.

CHHATTISGARH: CLOSE LEAD FOR CONG?

Exit polls predict a close lead for Congress in Chhattisgarh, which saw the election to the 90-seat assembly in two phases on November 7 and 17, and 46 seats are needed for a win. In 2018, the Congress had won 68 seats, BJP 15 and others 7.

According to Jan Ki Baat, the Congress could win 42-53 seats, the BJP 34-45 and others three. Axis My India has predicted 40-50 seats for the Congress, 36-46 for the BJP and 1-5 for the others. CNX exit polls estimate 46-56 seats for the Congress, 30-40 for the BJP and 3-5 for others. According to C-Voter, the Congress could win 41-53 seats, BJP 36-48 and others 0-4. Matrize has put the prediction for the Congress at 44-52, BJP 34-42 and 0-2 for others. According to Chanakya, the Congress could win 57 seats and the BJP 33.

Polstrat has projected the BJP will win 35-45 seats, Congress 40-50 and others 0-3. ETG Research has predicted 32-40 seats for the BJP and 48-56 for the Congress, with 2-4 for others.

In the first phase, 20 seats in the Naxal-affected state, went for voting and saw a high voter turnout of 78 per cent. In the second phase, a voter turnout of 68.15 per cent was recorded for 70 constituencies. While the Congress government in the state, under the leadership of Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, promised to continue expanding its current welfare projects, the BJP campaigned pushed for ‘Modi’s Guarantee for Chhattisgarh 2023’.

TELANGANA: CONG TO GO AHEAD OF BRS?

Telangana voted on November 30 to elect members to the 119-seat legislative assembly, with an approximate polling percentage of 64%. A total of 60 seats are needed for a win.

According to the Poll of Polls, the Congress could win 60 seats, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi 48, while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) 6 and BJP 5. The CNX has predicted 31-47 seats for the BRS, 63-79 for the Congress, 5-7 for AIMIM and 0-2 for the BJP. Jan Ki Baat has predicted 48-64 seats for the Congress, 40-55 seats for the BRS, 7-13 for the BJP and 4-7 for AIMIM. The PSG exit polls give 53-58 seats to the BRS, 49-54 to the Congress, 6-7 to the AIMIM and 4-6 to the BJP. Axis My India has predicted 40-50 seats for the Congress, 36-46 seats for the BJP and 1-5 seats for others. C-Voter has predicted 41-53 seats for the Congress, 36-48 for the BJP and 0-4 seats for others.

The ruling BRS has made all efforts to score a hat-trick, while the Congress, which has been on a winning spree after Karnataka, is also eyeing power by assuring its ‘six guarantees’ to voters. The BJP, meanwhile, is going with the promise of making a chief minister from the backward classes if it comes to power.

MIZORAM: TOUGH FIGHT BETWEEN ZPP & MNF

Mizoram voted for the 40 seats to decide the fate of 174 candidates in the polls on November 7. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), main opposition party Zoram People’s Party (ZPP), BJP and Congress are fighting to come to power in the Northeastern state.

According to Jan Ki Baat, ZPP could win 15-25 seats (8 in 2018), Mizo National Front (MNF) 10-14 (27 in 2018), the Congress 5-9 seats (4 in 2018) and the BJP 0-2 (1 in 2018). CNX has predicted 12-16 seats for ZPP, 14-18 for MNF, 8-10 for Congress, 0-2 for the BJP. Matrize has predicted 7-12 seats for the ZPP, 17-22 for the MNF, 7-10 for the Congress and 1-2 for the BJP. ABP-C Voter has predicted 12-18 seats for the ZPP, 15-21 for the MNF and 2-8 for the Congress.

Parties have to reach the 21 mark to form government in the northeastern state.