Mumbai: The third and the last phase of voting in Maharashtra is on April 24. Voters in 6 constituencies in Mumbai, 6 in North Maharashtra known as Khandesh region, 4 in Thane district, 2 in Marathwada and 1 in Konkan will exercise their franchise in the third and last phase. Seven seats are with the Congress, 5 with the BJP, 3 each with Shiv Sena and the NCP and 1 with Bahujan Vikas Party which has aligned with the Congress.
In 2009, Maharashtra delivered a large number of seats to the Congress because of the clear sweep in Mumbai city. The BJP too did well in this area but lost badly in Mumbai. The financial capital of the country had voted for the 'Manmohanomics' in 2009. This time the Congress fears that the same Manmohanomics-2 may go against the party.
Mumbai city
South Mumbai - Milind Deora of the Congress is seeking a second term from this constituency famously known as the residence of India's 'Lakshmiputras' as many business tycoons reside in the Malbar Hill and Colaba area, which comes under South Mumbai. It is a very complex constituency with Marathi middleclass bastions like Lalbaug, Parel and Naigaon also under this seat. Dongari and Byculla which are known Mumbai's Muslim bastis are also here. The Congress won the 2009 election because of these factors.
Raj Thackeray had raised North India vs the 'Bhumiputra' issue in 2008-09 which helped his party MNS get second position in vote share, pushing the Shiv Sena-BJP candidate to the third position. This time Congress MP Milind Deora is hoping for the repeat of 2009.
Raj Thackeray's MNS has once again fielded the same candidate, its MLA Bala Nandgaonkar and the Shiv Sena has changed its candidate and has fielded Aravind Sawant, a close confidant of Uddhav Thackeray.
Just like others constituencies in Mumbai, this South Mumbai too is full of problems. The pathetic conditions of road and bastis in Mazgaon Dockyard area can shock anyone. There are slums raised on the sea! Go to Dongari-Nal Bazar to see a century old dilapidated buildings all around. This area is known for buildings collapses during the rainy season in Mumbai. The real estate mafia has a stranglehold over the area.
Lalbaugh, Parel, Mahalakshmi, Worli, Nigaon areas are full of skyscrapers. Real estate mafia in this area has inspired films like Vastav and many others. This was once called as Girangaon Mill's village as many of the cotton mills once dotted this 'blue colour' area.
Posh new buildings, villas and chawls of middleclass Mumbaikars co-exist in this part of Mumbai. The labourer who built Mumbai with his blood and sweat is today on the road selling vada pav-burji pav or vegetables and the nexus between mill owners - builders-politicians-bureaucrats has bulldozed him!
These are the real issues of South Mumbaikar which needs to be addressed beyond election campaign. All parties including Shiv Sena, BJP and the Congress-NCP have failed to address these issues. Though these parties have failed many times in the past, they have their party organisations on the ground which can still get them votes.
This time AAP is also the in the fray and is hoping for a Delhi like result in Mumbai. The AAP's Meera Sanyal, who lost miserably as an independent candidate in 2009, is contesting once again. Last time she got just 12,000 votes. This time she has a party to bank upon. Political observers say that though she will get good number of votes this time, the main battle is between the Congress and the MNS and the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance. At best she can end up defeating somebody.
The battle for North East Mumbai constituency will be more keenly watched this time. The candidates from the NCP, BJP and the AAP are in the fray. Sanjay Dina Patil from the NCP who is also the sitting MP, BJP's Kirit Somaiyya of the 'anti-graft fight' fame and renowned social activist Medha Patkar from the AAP have locked horns in a tough fight.
Unlike South Mumbai, middle class, lower middle class and slums dominate the constituency. Interestingly, the MNS which has 3 MLAs out of 6 has not fielded a candidate like the last time. Many see this as Raj's favour to the BJP. But on the ground, equations are different. In 2009 the NCP's Sanjay Dina won by just 2100 votes, Kirit Somaiyya came second and the MNS got 1,92,000 votes.
Patil could win because of the votes he got from Mankhurd-Shivajinagar assembly seats, dominated by slums. Medha Patkar has been fighting for the development and against eviction of these and other slums in Mumbai for a long time. Political observers feel that she will get a good number of votes and it can damage the NCP candidate and help BJP's Kirit Somaiyya.
To compensate for the votes it may lose to the AAP, the NCP is eying a large chunk of Marathi votes, which last time went to the MNS. Patil, a Marathi and a local leader, has much more appeal among the middle class Marathi voters than Kirit Somaiyya, a Gujrathi or Medha Patkar who is a Marathi but an 'outsider'. (Medha Patkar stays in Central Mumbai constituency which is close to North East LS seat). If this strategy works out then it will be a tough battle for the BJP and also will be against the perception that 'Raj Thackeray is helping Modi'!
This is also a constituency of dumping grounds. Mumbai's all three major dumping grounds are here. This is also a constituency which has the worst slums in Mumbai, where the people live in subhuman conditions in Mulund, Bhandup, Vikroli and Ghatkopar. At the same time, this is also on the radar of real estate barons of the city as large undeveloped land is also available here. But most of the land has environmental issues. In coming years, main issue here will be that of land development.
Other 4 LS seats in Mumbai are also important, which the Congress is struggling to retain. Priya Dutt, one of the important faces of the Congress, is facing tough challenge by the BJP's Poonam Mahajan, daughter of the late Pramod Mahajan in North West constituency.
Gurudas Kamat who has dominated the Mumbai Congress for a long time is facing a multi-cornered fight in Mumbai North-West. Mayank Gandhi of the AAP, Gajanan Kirtikar from Shiv Sena and film director Mahesh Manjarekar from MNS are the his rivals. To add some glamour, actress Rakhi Sawant is also contesting on her own party Rashtriya Aam Party.
Thane-Kalyan is also witnessing a very interesting battle. Kalyan has been a stronghold of the Shiv Sena since1990's. But in 2009 the Congress and its alliance got 9 out of 10 seats in the Assembly polls.
This time the Shiv Sena is facing a tough battle. Anand Paranjape who won on the Shiv Sena ticket in 2009 is now contesting on the NCP ticket. The MNS has given ticket to an 'Aagari' (fishermen) candidate Raju Patil and the Shiv Sena has given ticket to the son of its strongman in Thane district.
Agari caste has close to three and a half lakh votes here. The MNS is trying to explore this Agari + Marathi Bhumiputra combination this time. This constituency of Mumbai has a spread over rural, semi-urban and urban areas. Out of 6 MLAs from here, 2 are with the NCP, 1 with the MNS and 3 with the Shiv Sena-BJP. Shiv Sena is trying to keep its bastion intact by playing the Hindutva and Marathi card. This is the only seat where the NCP is trying to explore the Bramhin plus OBC plus Muslim combination.
The NCP candidate Paranjape is a Bramhin and the Muslim dominated assembly constituency of Mumbra-Kalwa has a strong NCP presence.
Six constituencies of North Maharashtra will also vote in this phase. Nashik will be a keenly watched constituency. Maharashtra PWD minister Chhagan Bhujbal is contesting from Nashik on the NCP ticket and he is facing a big challenge by the MNS, Shiv Sena and the AAP. Two years ago, the NCP has lost Nasik municipality to the MNS. The BJP and the MNS have made very serious allegations of corruptions against Bhujbal and his family. Bhujbal is also facing many serious cases of corruption in the Bombay High Court.
In these days of anti corruption atmosphere, a semi urban and politically vibrant constituency like Nasik would be a tough challenge for any politician. The NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has personally campaigned here for Chhagan Bhujbal for 6 days till Monday. Pawar has also gone a step further by declaring Bhujbal as the NCP leader in the next Lok Sabha, a position Pawar himself held in the 15th Lok Sabha.
Raj Thackeray is constantly attacking Bhujbal by leveling serious corruption charges against him in his rallies across Mumbai. Shiv Sena too has targeted Bhujbal. But, Bhujbal is hoping that a division of votes between Shiv Sena and the MNS like the 2009 election would help him. The AAP too has fielded a candidate here. Whistleblower of Maharashtra's much talked irrigation scam, chief engineer Vijay Pandhare is contesting on the AAP ticket. Pandhare has bravely fought this battle against the NCP's Ajit Pawar. Common people have respect for him. But, will that respect and image of whistleblower translate into votes?
Nandurbar is a tribal dominated constituency which has returned only the Congress MP. The 9-time MP Manikrao Gavit is again contesting here on the Congress ticket. Nandurbar has always remained loyal to the Congress. Even in 1977, the Congress won Nandurbar.
But this time the BJP has fielded a strong candidate Hina Gavit. A young woman Hina Gavit is the daughter of Vijaykumar Gavit who was a cabinet minister in Maharashtra and a strong NCP leader till she got the BJP ticket. The NCP has expelled him after Hina got the BJP ticket. The old Gavit vs young Gavit fight has become a do or die battle for both Congress and BJP. Will the Congress be able wrest this seat this time? Sonia Gandhi has been addressing a public rally at Nandurbar during every election. Before that Rajiv Gandhi and even Indira Gandhi always addressed one public rally in Nandurbar during elections. This time Sonia Gandhi had to cancel her visit due to ill health.
If the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance does well in this phase, it will have a direct impact on the coming Maharashtra assembly election in October 2014 because out of 10 Lok Sabha seats the MNS is contesting, 7 seats are going to polls in this phase.
If the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance gets a good number of seats, it will damage Raj Thackeray's prospects in the assembly election. If the Congress-NCP combine does well, then the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will have to rethink over its strategy. If the AAP has to survive and grow, it will have to win at least 1 or 2 seats in this phase. This phase is likely to rewrite strategies of all political parties for the coming assembly election in Maharashtra.
Jalna in Marathwada is also voting in this phase. Recently, Jalna hit the national headlines because of its terrible draught. Jalna is state's most affected draught hit area. Scarcity of water was so serious that Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar was seriously thinking of sending water by trains to Jalna. In the current Lok Sabha, the MP is from the BJP. But this time the Congress has worked hard to win this seat. The NCP has also backed the Congress fully.
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