Chennai: Making poll predictions in Tamil Nadu ahead of the 2014 parliamentary elections is getting tricky, say political observers. With both the DMK and the AIADMK choosing not to go into a pre-poll arrangement with a national party, analysts are cautious this time around.
This is especially true in the case of the three Lok Sabha constituencies in Chennai. Once considered a DMK bastion, a multi-cornered fight in Tamil Nadu's capital has thrown the elections wide open.
Chennai Central
The Chennai Central parliamentary constituency has been with the Maran family since 1996. DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi's nephew, Murasoli Maran won from Chennai Central in three back-to-back elections between 1996 and 1999. Considered the party's face in New Delhi, Murasoli Maran handed over the baton to his second son, Dayanidhi after his death in 2003.
Handed a ticket from his granduncle, Dayanidhi Maran entered the 2004 Lok Sabha elections as a political novice. But with the backing of his older brother, Kalanidhi Maran's Sun Network media empire, Dayanidhi defeated his AIADMK rival by a margin of 1,30,000 votes. Inducted into the Union Cabinet as Minister for Communication and Information Technology, Dayanidhi Maran easily transitioned into the role vacated by his father as DMK's point person in New Delhi.
Comparing father and son, Sampath Kumar, a veteran journalist and professor at Asian College of Journalism (ACJ) says, "Murasoli Maran was a big strategist, a clever politician. But Dayanidhi Maran is a survivor, who claims a close relationship with Sonia Gandhi."
However, following a controversial survey published in 2007 by Kalanidhi Maran's Tamil newspaper Dinakaran suggesting that Karunanidhi's younger son MK Stalin was the preferred successor to lead the DMK over MK Alagiri, Dayanidhi was forced to step down from his Cabinet position.
Although, the Marans were brought back into the DMK fold shortly ahead of the 2009 general elections, Dayanidhi's power weakened in the party following the family feud.
As a sitting MP from Chennai Central, Dayanidhi Maran contested on a DMK ticket and emerged victorious. He was made Minister for Textiles in the Union Cabinet.
But two years into his second term as a Union Minister, Dayanidhi was forced to resign once again - this time over his alleged involvement in the 2G spectrum scam. With corruption and the 2G scam fresh on people's minds, the DMK was routed in the 2011 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. Out of the 16 Assembly constituencies in Chennai, DMK ended up losing 14.
While Dayanidhi Maran's renomination may have raised several eyebrows, his party is dismissive of 2G spectrum allegations and the question of tainted ministers. Political analysts, however, point out that the 2G case will not be an issue in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
"It is not going to have any effect. Whoever voted against the DMK because of the 2G scam in 2011 had already made up their minds," argues N Sathiya Moorthy, Director of the Chennai Chapter of Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
The same view is shared by Sampath Kumar, who notes, "Public memory is short. The 2G scam is not an election issue."
But this does not guarantee Maran a third term. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa's three years in power has seen a host of welfare schemes which include a cheap meal at any of the 200 Amma canteens located in the city, 20 kilograms of free rice a month for ration card holders and 4-grams of gold for getting girls married.
Riding on Jayalalithaa's popular schemes and with no anti-incumbency wave against the AIADMK government, 39-year-old SR Vijayakumar, the party's youth wing secretary, is expected to put up a good fight against Maran.
Another candidate who is likely to play spoiler and fragment votes is AAP's J. Prabhakar, a social activist. With corruption being the core issue of their campaign, AAP is expected to do well among the city's young voters, who are disillusioned with the regional parties.
South Chennai
The prestigious South Chennai parliamentary constituency also has an interesting poll battle on the cards with the DMK's TKS Elangovan taking on AIADMK's political newbie Dr J Jayavardhan.
Curiously, DMK has chosen to move Elangovan, who is a sitting MP from North Chennai. While the DMK has seen the likes of Former Shipping Minister TR Balu, Murasoli Maran, and former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister CN Annadurai emerge victorious from South Chennai's parliamentary constituency in the past, the seat is presently held by the AIADMK's C Rajendran, who has been denied a ticket.
Although a political novice, 26-year-old Dr Jayavardhan is the son of former Assembly speaker D Jayakumar and is likely to benefit from his father's committed base of voters.
Based on the 2011 Assembly elections, AIADMK appears to have an edge given that its alliance won all six of the assembly segments that currently make up the South Chennai parliamentary constituency. The city's IT corridor also falls under South Chennai.
Sathiya Moorthy observes that the presence of young, migrants voters who live and work in the city's IT companies will also influence which way the contest swings.
The NDA alliance also cannot be discounted. With the BJP managing to stitch together a 'rainbow alliance' with parties like Vijayakanth's DMDK, Ramadoss' PMK and Vaiko's MDMK, this will be another force to watch out for.
"The Narendra Modi factor will have an impact on how the urban middle class votes," notes ORF's Sathiya Moorthy. Those hoping for an alternative to the Dravidian parties are likely to vote for the NDA alliance. BJP has fielded its national executive member L Ganesan from here.
North Chennai
The North Chennai constituency has also primarily seen the DMK hold fort, winning 10 out of 14 parliamentary elections. However, the 2011 Assembly elections saw the party lose all segments barring Kolathur, where Karunanidhi's younger son and DMK Treasurer MK Stalin stood.
While sitting MP TKS Elangovan has been shifted to South Chennai, the DMK has chosen to reward Stalin loyalist, R Girijan with a ticket here. Arch-rival AIADMK has also fielded a new face, TG Venkatesh Babu.
But as veteran journalist Sampth Kumar argues the candidate and his name don't matter for the AIADMK. "People vote for Amma and for the two leaves symbol. Or they vote because of MGR's legacy," he says.
The Left Front, which was forced to go it alone in the state following Jayalalithaa's decision to snap ties over seat-sharing differences, has chosen CPI(M)'s women's wing leader U Vasuki contest from North Chennai.
Interestingly, CPI's D Pandian, who won the North Chennai seat in 1989 and 1991, but as a Congress candidate, has chosen to sit out this time. Pandian had contested in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls but lost to DMK's Elangovan by a margin of 19,000 votes.
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