Thakurwaad, Poor Ticket Distribution: What Led to BJP's Downfall in UP's Purvanchal Region

On a winning streak, ‘UP Ke Ladke’ left a severe dent on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the party’s strongholds by securing 16 of out 27 seats in Uttar Pradesh’s Purvanchal (East) region, bringing down BJP-led NDA’s tally from 20 seats (which it had secured in 2019 LS Polls) to 11.

Not only did the NDA suffer a loss of nine seats in Purvanchal, but the duo of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav, a part of INDI Alliance, who were widely referred as ‘UP Ke Ladke’ during 2024 Lok Sabha Elections campaign, also grasped another set of six seats, won by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2019 LS Polls from the region, further bringing down its tally to zero.

BJP-Led NDA’s Tally Down From 20 to 11 Seats

Of the total 16 seats, which went into INDI alliance’s kitty, SP won 15 seats including Azamgarh, Machhlishahr (SC), Ballia, Basti, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Sant Kabir Nagar, Chandauli, Ambedkarnagar, Shrawasti, Lalganj (SC), Jaunpur, Ghosi, Ghazipur and NDA partner Apna Dal’s (S) Robertsganj seat. Congress’s victory on the Allahabad seat took the tally to 16. SP’s score came in contrast with its previous score when it managed to bag mere one seat – Azamgarh – in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls. It was the seat from where Akhilesh had himself contested. But after winning the assembly elections, he left this seat and BJP captured this seat in the by-elections.

The seats which the BJP managed to win are Phulpur, Dumariyaganj, Bhadohi, Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur and Mirzapur. And the seats which it won in 2019 and lost this time include Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Machhlishahar, Ballia, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Chandauli and its allies Apna Dal’s (S) Robertsganj seat.

UP’s Purvanchal region accounts for 27 Lok Sabha seats, of which 14 voted in the sixth phase of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections while the remaining 13 seats went to polls in the seventh and final phase held on June 1. Most-watched among these are Varanasi constituency, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi contested for the third time, and Yogi Adityanath’s home turf Gorakhpur, where the BJP fielded actor-politician Ravi Kishan. Besides, BJP had pressed all its heavyweights into action here with PM Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath leading the charge with nine and 28 rallies, respectively, in Purvanchal. In public meetings, road shows and rallies across eastern UP, the leaders headlined their speeches with the state government’s crackdown on ‘mafia’, alleging that their rivals’ record on the same has been dismal.

But, what are the possible factors which led to BJP’s defeat in the region, often considered among BJP’s strongholds? UP’s political observers largely blamed ‘Thakurwaad or Thakur politics’ behind BJP’s loss and also giving importance to irrelevant issues like ‘mafia raj’ and ‘Ram temple’ while ignoring local and developmental issues.

Thakurwaad, The Possible Factor That Led to BJP’s Downfall in Purvanchal

“Purvanchal or East UP is not only known as UP CM’s home turf but is also a Thakur dominated region. There are big ‘Thakur’ names which include Kunda MLA and Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) chief Raghuraj Pratap Singh, popularly known as Raja Bhaiya, former MP and strongman politician Dhananjay Singh and other notable Thakur leaders such as Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, Brijesh Singh, and Abhay Singh play crucial roles. These leaders, whose influence extends beyond their constituencies, hold substantial sway in Purvanchal when it comes to UP Politics. What possibly led to the resentment among the Thakur leaders in Purvanchal was the alleged disrespect towards the Thakur community and the ‘odd’ ticket distribution. And the trigger point of all was the the controversial statement of BJP leader Parsottam Rupala, who contested from Rajkot, Gujarat and it got further fuelled by allegations of Kshatriya history distortion, especially on the Mihir Bhoj row and other crucial issues,” pointed out Manoj Singh, a political analyst who hails from Gorakhpur district.

The Beginning

Rajya Sabha MP Parshottam Rupala kicked off a controversy on March 22, 2024 after he said at a Dalit event that the erstwhile ‘maharajas’ broke bread with the British and also married off their daughters to them. The video went viral, inviting the wrath of various Kshatriya organisations including Thakurs (Rajputs), who are believed to be the descendants of erstwhile royal or princely families in Saurashtra, Gujarat. “Even kings and royals bowed down to the British, started family bonds with them, broke bread with them, and even married their daughters to them. But our Dalit Samaj neither changed their religion nor established such ties though they were persecuted the most,” Rupala reportedly said. “Though Rupala managed to win the Rajkot seat but the controversial statement he gave caused a disaster in other states including UP,” Singh told News18.

Dissent Among the ‘Thakurs’ in UP

Singh said the effect of Rupala’s remark coupled with the controversy surrounding the identity of the 9th-century Hindu king Mihir Bhoj, who, both the Rajputs and the Gurjars claim, belonged to their community, was much visible among the people from Thakur community in UP. The community also held many mahapanchayats across the country ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to express their resentment against the BJP. In UP, the controversy surfaced when seven-time MLA from Kunda and president of Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiya made an announcement that he will not support any political party or candidate in the Lok Sabha elections.

“Singh refrained from endorsing any specific candidate or party, a surprising move given his recent meeting with union home minister Amit Shah in Bengaluru, which had led to speculation about his potential support for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Singh’s absence from Shah’s stage during the Kunda rally and his non-commitment to the BJP were unexpected. This again sent a strong message among the people from Thakur community,” said Singh.

However, taking advantage of the situation, the opposition further fuelled the situation by making a remark that BJP is planning to remove Yogi Adityanath, who himself belongs to the Thakur community, he said. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in a joint press conference with SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav accused BJP of removing UP CM Yogi Adityanath once it comes to power to “establish a dictatorship.”

BJP’s Anti-Mafia Pitch Failed to Set The Narrative

The second reason which led to the downfall of BJP in UP’s Purvanchal region was giving importance to irrelevant issues like ‘mafia raj’ and ‘Ram temple’ while ignoring local and developmental issues. “Modi and CM Yogi who led the charge with nine and 28 rallies, respectively, in Purvanchal, in almost all events, they spoke about state government’s crackdown on ‘mafia’, alleging that their rivals’ record on the same has been dismal. Be it in Mirzapur where Narendra Modi blamed Samajwadi Party government for ruining the image of the entire Purvanchal and for making it a safe haven for the ‘mafias’ or in other rallies where he admired Yogi’s bulldozer strategy for ending the mafia raj,” he added.

He, however, said that Modi-Yogi’s anti-mafia pitch failed to set the narrative following recent developments where Amit Shah held a meeting with ‘bahubali’ Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiya and mafia-politician Dhananjay Singh’s wife. Later, Dhananjay Singh, who is an influential figure in Jaunpur, announced his support to the BJP. Another development is the induction of mafia-politician Abhay Singh, the rebel Samajwadi Party MLA who cross-voted during Rajya Sabha elections into the saffron party.

“In the era of social media, people are aware of the mismatch between words and action. Whereas at the same time the INDIA bloc seemed to have struck the right chord by highlighting the other relevant issues including paper leak, unemployment and others,” he further added.

Political observers say the cocktail of events, poor ticket distribution and the alleged disrespect towards the Thakur community, however, left a severe dent to BJP, bringing down its tally to 33 compared to 62 seats it got in the 2019 general election.