Ahead of the counting of votes on March 10 for the assembly elections in the five states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, exit polls on Monday will attempt to predict the mood of the voters on the ground. The results, particularly in bellwether UP, will be significant in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Election Commission had put a ban on the exit polls, which lifted at 6pm, with the final phase of voting in UP coming to an end.
But will the poll pundits manage to gauge the true picture? A look at past exit polls in these five states, compared to the final results, may reveal the answer.
UTTAR PRADESH
2019 parliamentary polls
When it comes to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, all pollsters were way off the mark. News Nation gave the BJP-led NDA 37 seats and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) with the SP, BSP, etc, 41. India TV-CNX gave 41 to the NDA and 35 to the MGB. ABP News-Nielsen predicted 36 seats for the NDA, and 42 for the MGB. The Times Now-VMX forecast was the reverse—42 for the NDA and 36 for the MGB. ABP News-CVoter gave the NDA a mere 25 seats, and the MGB 51. India Today predicted an even bigger win for the MGB, giving it 58 seats and the NDA 18. ABP News-CSDS predicted 36 seats for the NDA and 42 for the MGB. The final outcome was a sweep for the NDA that bagged 64 of the total 80 seats while the MGB was left with a mere 15. Pollsters had predicted between 2 and 4 seats for the UPA that ended up with just 1.
2017 assembly elections
Exit poll pundits did not have much luck with predicting the results of the 2017 UP assembly elections either. Most foresaw a gruelling triangular contest on the cards between the BJP, the alliance of the SP and Congress, and Mayawati’s BSP. ABP News, in fact, predicted victory for the BSP with 185 of the 403 seats, followed by 120 for the BJP, and 93 for the SP-Congress alliance. India TV-CVoter gave 95-111 seats to the BSP, 134-150 to the BJP and 138-162 to SP+Congress. India Today-Axis predicted 39-43 seats for Mayawati’s party, 180-191 for the BJP and 168-178 for SP+Congress. The Week-Hansa Research poll foresaw 20-24 seats going to the BSP, 192-196 to the BJP, and a close 178-182 to SP+Congress. TNSPIMT predicted 23 seats for the BSP, 177 for the BJP, and victory for the SP-Congress alliance with 201 seats. News24 gave 76 seats to the BSP, 120 to the BJP, and 192 to SP+Congress. The Times Now-VMR exit poll saw 47 seats going to the BSP, 202 to the BJP and 147 to SP+Congress. The final result was a stunning victory for the BJP that bagged 312 of the 403 seats, with the BSP getting 19, and SP+Congress ending up with 54.
2012 assembly elections
Going further back in time, most pollsters picked up on the public mood in favour of the Samajwadi Party in the 2012 UP assembly elections but were off the mark when it came to the margin of victory. Star News-Nielsen predicted 101 seats going to the BSP, 61 to the BJP, 135 to the SP, and 99 to the Congress-RLD alliance. News 24 estimated 108 seats going to the BSP, 57 to the BJP, 127 to the SP, and 94 to Congress+RLD. India TV-CVoter gave 139-147 seats to the BSP, 44-52 to the BJP, 134-142 to the SP, and 52-60 to Congress+RLD. On counting day, the SP outstripped its rivals by a large margin, bagging 224 seats, with 80 going to the BSP, 47 to the BJP, and 37 to the Congress-RLD alliance.
PUNJAB
2019 parliamentary polls
For the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab, Times Now-VMR gave 2 of the 13 seats to the BJP-led NDA, 11 to the UPA and none to AAP. News Nation predicted a closer contest with 5 seats going to the NDA, 7 to the UPA, and 1 to AAP. India TV-CNX foresaw the NDA getting 3 seats, the UPA 9, and AAP 1. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat predicted 1-3 seats going to the NDA, 9-10 to the UPA, and 0-1 to AAP. Zee 24-Taas gave 1 seat to the NDA, 10 to the UPA, and 2 to AAP. ABP News-CVoter gave 1 seat to the NDA, 12 to the UPA, and 0 to AAP. The ABP News-CSDS poll predicted the same outcome. The final result was the UPA emerging victorious with 8 of the 13 seats, the NDA getting 4, and AAP grabbing 1.
2017 assembly elections
Ahead of the previous assembly elections in Punjab, most pollsters overestimated the support for the Aam Aadmi Party on the ground. HuffPost-CVoter predicted 11 of the 117 seats going to the BJP-SAD alliance, 43 to the Congress, and a clear victory for AAP with 63 seats. The Aaj Tak-Axis exit polls gave 18-22 seats to BJP+SAD, 56-61 to the Congress, and 36-41 to AAP. ABP News-CSDS foresaw 28-36 seats going to the BJP-SAD alliance, 47-55 to the Congress, and 26-34 to AAP. TV 24 News gave 20-25 seats to BJP+SAD, 27-35 to the Congress, and a massive victory to AAP with 70-80 seats. VDP Associates predicted 7 seats going to BJP+SAD, 44 to the Congress, and 62 to AAP. The Week-Hansa Research poll forecast 28-30 seats for BJP+SAD, 49-51 for the Congress, and 33-35 for AAP. India Today-Axis gave 18-22 seats to the BJP-SAD alliance, 56-62 to the Congress, and 36-41 to AAP. In the final results, the Congress was the clear winner with 77 of the 117 seats, while SAD-BJP netted 18 and AAP 20.
2012 assembly elections
Going another five years back, India TV-CVoter predicted 64-72 seats for the BJP-SAD alliance in the 2012 assembly polls of Punjab, 43-47 for the Congress and 4-8 for Others. India Today-ORG gave 69 seats to BJP+SAD, 40 to the Congress, and 8 to Others. On results day, the BJP-SAD alliance emerged victorious as predicted in the exit polls, with 68 seats, as the Congress got 46, and Others 3.
UTTARAKHAND
2019 parliamentary polls
Pollsters picked up which way the wind was blowing in the hill state ahead of the previous Lok Sabha elections. Times Now-VMR, Republic TV-CVoter, NewsX-Neta, News 24-Today’s Chanakya, News Nation, News18-IPSOS, India Today-Axis and ABP-Nielsen all predicted around 4-5 seats for the NDA, and 0-1 for the UPA. On counting day, sure enough, the NDA picked up all the 5 available Lok Sabha seats, leaving none for the UPA.
2017 assembly elections
Most poll pundits foresaw the BJP headed for a victory in Uttarakhand in the 2017 assembly polls. India Today-Axis gave 12-21 seats to the Congress, 46-53 to the BJP, and 2-6 to Others. News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted 15 seats for the Congress, 53 for the BJP, and 2 for Others. India TV-CVoter calculated 32 seats for the Congress, 29-35 for the BJP, and 5 for Others. India News-MRC gave 30 seats to the Congress, 38 to the BJP, and 2 to Others. The ABP-CSDS exit poll predicted 23-29 seats for the Congress, 34-42 for the BJP, and 3-9 for Others. Network18-Gramener estimated 26 seats going to the Congress, 38 to the BJP, and 6 to Others. The final outcome was a sweeping victory for the BJP with 57 of the 70 seats, while the Congress got 11, and Others 2.
2012 assembly elections
Ahead of the 2012 Uttarakhand assembly elections, the News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll promised a tight contest with 30 seats for the Congress, 28 for the BJP, and a significant 12 for Others. The final results saw the Congress sneaking ahead with 32 seats, as the BJP was behind by just one with 31 seats, and Others bagged 7.
GOA
2019 parliamentary polls
The 2 Lok Sabha seats in Goa were split evenly between the NDA and UPA in most of the exit polls ahead of the 2019 elections. NewsX-Neta, Times Now-VMR and Republic TV-CVoter all predicted a seat each for the two alliances. Only India Today-Axis estimated both seats going to the NDA. On counting day, living up to expectations, the UPA and NDA picked up a seat each.
2017 assembly elections
In the run-up to the 2017 Goa assembly polls, the India News-MRC exit poll predicted 15 of the 40 seats going to the BJP, 10 to the Congress, 7 to newcomer AAP, and 8 to Others. India TV-CVoter estimated 15-21 seats for the BJP, 12-18 for the Congress, 0-4 for AAP, and Others 2-8. India Today-Axis gave 18-22 seats to the BJP, 9-13 to the Congress, 0-2 to AAP, and 4-9 to Others. The Network18-Gramener exit poll calculated 19 seats for the BJP, 14 for the Congress, 6 for AAP, and 1 for Others. In counting, the Congress got the most seats with 17, followed by the BJP that got 13, Others a very significant 10, and AAP none.
2012 assembly elections
The India TV-CVoter exit poll correctly predicted victory for the BJP ahead of the 2012 Goa assembly elections, giving it 20 seats, with 17 for the Congress, and 3 for Others. The BJP ended up with 21 seats in the final results, leaving the Congress, which got 9, far behind, while Others bagged 10 seats.
MANIPUR
2019 parliamentary polls
The exit polls of Republic TV-CVoter, NewsX-Neta and India Today-Axis accurately predicted both of Manipur’s Lok Sabha seats going to the NDA in the run-up to the 2019 elections. Times Now-VMR, ABP-CVoter, and Republic Bharat-Jan Ki Baat, on the other hand, had estimated a split verdict. In counting, the NDA netted both seats, while the UPA got none.
2017 assembly elections
Ahead of the 2017 Manipur assembly elections, India Today-Axis calculated 16-22 of the 60 seats going to the BJP, 30-36 to the Congress, and 6-11 to Others. India TV-CVoter predicted 25-31 seats for the BJP, 17-23 for the Congress, and 9-15 for Others. News18-Gramener gave 25 seats to the BJP, 24 to the Congress, and 11 to Others. The final outcome was a Congress victory with 28 seats, as the BJP got 21, and Others an extremely significant 11.
2012 assembly elections
News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted 25 of the 60 seats going to the Congress, 10 to the NCP, and 9 to the Trinamool Congress. The exit poll of CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS gave 24-32 seats to the Congress, and 7-13 to the TMC. In the final results of Manipur 2012, the Congress swept to victory with 42 seats, the TMC got 7, the NCP 1, and Others bagged 10 seats.
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