Will the drastic two-year-long jail sentence of Rahul Gandhi by a Gujarat court on a defamation charge and his disqualification from the Lok Sabha turn out to be a blessing in disguise for him and the Congress, actually helping the scattered anti-BJP Opposition to come together? Or, will Rahul walk into the BJP’s trap inviting him to indulge in mock heroics as a martyr fighting a lone battle against the Modi regime ignoring the claims of the many regional parties that feel they have far better credentials? Much would depend on the political finesse with which the Congress leader, his party as well as the rest of the Opposition play their cards over the next several months leading to next year’s crucial parliamentary elections.
With just about a year left for the Lok Sabha polls, it is palpably clear that the BJP looms large like a gorilla in the room with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personality and Home Minister Amit Shah’s ruthless use of the state apparatus dominating the political scenario. It is quite evident that while the BJP has a readymade slogan of Hindutva masquerading as muscular nationalism the Opposition is yet to come up with an effective popular idea to counter this. More importantly, as long as the Opposition parties fight separate battles cutting into each other’s votes and not fighting together with coordinated electoral tactics guided by a common political strategy the BJP should be home and dry for a third consecutive term.
It is true that the Opposition is badly divided by past bitterness, current rivalries and future ambitions. Yet, there is deepening awareness across the political spectrum that the 2024 Lok Sabha polls may be the last chance for parties in various regions all over the country to remain relevant as they have so far by successfully contesting state assembly elections winning many of them quite often defeating the BJP. There is growing realisation within the Opposition that the BJP — once a party that fought for federalism — is now hungry for total power as a monolithic entity and could make this dream a reality if provided a third term.
Logically, the Opposition if for nothing else but sheer self-preservation by now should have at least temporarily put aside all its differences and come together on a common platform for the crucial battle ahead in 2024. However apart from stray voices calling for Opposition unity there are no signs of a concerted collaboration among the various parties to combat the BJP juggernaut. Indeed, there was more optimism about a united fight by the Opposition before the last Lok Sabha polls than the downbeat mood today.
A major reason why there is little sign of the bonhomie between the Gandhis, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Sitaram Yechury and a host of other Opposition leaders on display at the swearing in ceremony of the Janata Dal (S)-Congress coalition government at Bengalaru in the summer of 2018 is the palpably diminished profile of the Congress today. Five years ago the Congress despite being routed in 2014 still gave rise to hopes of an imminent political revival unlike now when the party seems rapidly fading after losing a series of elections and governments through engineered defections.
Ironically, the Gandhis and their party cohorts show little recognition of their vastly diminished political profile in the country and this has become a major impediment for the Congress to accept the role of a spoke rather than the hub of a unified Opposition wheel. Had the Congress lost its voter base as it has done in many states to the regional parties or the BJP in the entire country it would be another matter. But the Congress despite shrinking is still the main Opposition to the BJP in several states and its combined countrywide vote aggregate would be certainly higher than any other single party.
Clearly, while the Congress on its own has no chance of even denting the BJP, it is also true that the Opposition without an alliance and tactical collaboration without the former will just gift away the polls to the ruling party. A major problem in accommodating the Congress in a compartment jostling with ambitious Opposition leaders is where Rahul Gandhi would sit without losing self-respect and simultaneously not offend or belittle others in a potential alliance many of them more senior to him.
This is where the banishment from Parliament may actually work in the favour of Rahul and prospects of a united Opposition. Having already spurned the Congress president’s post and fresh from his acclaimed Bharat Jodo Yatra where himself spoke of rising above petty politics what is to prevent the Gandhi scion from declaring that he was not interested in the spoils of office but dedicate himself to work at the grassroots for the welfare of the people. Most of his advisers and perhaps many political pundits too would no doubt find such a daring gambit downright stupid, but it could also completely bamboozle BJP strategists and their propaganda machine.
At the same time, it would leave the mundane Congress president, Mallikarjun Kharge, under the guidance of Sonia Gandhi to carry on backroom negotiations with the Opposition and work out seat-wise alliances or arrangements to stop the splintering of the anti-BJP vote.
The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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