The sudden spurt of excitement in Indian media over Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s interview to Al Arabiya TV was unsurprising, even if it was entirely unnecessary. It is one of the quirky consequences of 24×7 media reacting to the news even before it has been read or heard fully, much less understood. With click-bait becoming a selling strategy, media outfits look for smart headlines without so much as bothering or even pondering about the context. The media headlines in India focussed on how Shehbaz Sharif admitted that Pakistan had learnt its lessons after fighting three wars, how much Pakistan was interested in talks with India, and that it was looking towards the UAE to intercede in the talks. But it completely ignored the caveats – Kashmir, human rights and alleged persecution of minorities – laid out in the interview.
Because the Indian media went into overdrive, the Pakistan foreign office was forced to clarify the conditions – the reversal of the constitutional reforms in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir – under which any dialogue could take place between India and Pakistan.
Had the Indian journalists been more diligent, they would have dismissed the interview in the first instance and saved the Pakistan foreign office the trouble of issuing a clarification. It was as clear as daylight that the conditions laid out by Sharif were clearly a non-starter. India was always going to reject them summarily. After all, a similar non-overture had come from him a few months ago and was virtually ignored by the Government of India as non-serious and insincere.
The conditions put by Sharif aside, it has always been the policy of the Indian government to not respond to media reports, interviews or social media posts. Pakistanis should have known this because India has made its position quite clear on many occasions in the past. For example, when the former Finance Minister Miftah Ismail tweeted about being open to buying things from India, he never got any response, something that has rankled in him since. Even so, if Sharif wanted to explore the possibility of talks with India, he could have used diplomatic channels or some very discreet official channels. But he chose to speak through the media. It was a no-brainer that India didn’t bite the bait.
His insincerity and slyness was apparent from his grandstanding on human rights and raking up the issue of minorities in India. It was rich coming from a Pakistani because the nation is neither a poster boy of human rights in the world nor has it shaken off its notoriety for the religious persecution of Hindus, Ahmadiyyas, Christians and even Shias. By putting these riders, Sharif was only virtue-signalling peace with India. Perhaps, he was also trying to appease his donors in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, who — it is believed — have been counselling Pakistan to get off its hobby horse of hostility towards India. At the same time, he did not want to alienate the people and military establishment in Pakistan and so added the conditions.
To wave away his rhetoric as a political compulsion is nothing but apologism. That he needs to resort to this rhetoric means he knows that peace with India is politically not a sellable proposition in Pakistan. It also means that nothing has been done to prepare the Pakistani public in favour of a peace initiative with India. Even more galling is the sense Shehbaz Sharif (like most other Pakistanis) has that India is desperate for a peace deal with Pakistan and that he can dictate terms to it. It was almost as if Sharif was thinking that he was a victor who had vanquished India and brought it to its knees and was now magnanimously offering conditions on which Pakistan would be ready to hold a dialogue. Perhaps he was living in an alternative reality in which it was not Pakistan, but India, that was going around with a begging bowl to stay afloat, on the brink of an economic meltdown, suffering unprecedented political instability and chaos, and facing a massive wave of terrorism coming from Afghanistan.
Pakistanis have somehow convinced themselves that peace is something they can hold hostage because it is in India’s interest and that they will be depriving India of something for which it is desperate. They think that sooner or later, India will agree to compromise on its sovereignty and integrity so it can befriend Pakistan because of the ‘benefits’ that will accrue to India. Guess what? Normalisation is not a favour Pakistan will be doing to India; it is in fact Pakistan’s need more than it is India’s. Therefore, there is no incentive for India to compromise on its core interests for the sake of Pakistan; nor is there any compulsion — certainly not now when Pakistan is on the ropes and even its nuisance value and trouble-making potential has been seriously whittled down.
Pakistan is no El Dorado. It never was. The connectivity it offers is of limited value, if at all. India doesn’t need Pakistan to connect to Iran; the Arabian sea is a far more efficient and cost-effective connection. Linking up to Central Asia through Pakistan is more hype than anything else, especially if it has to pass through Afghanistan, which is likely to remain disturbed for the foreseeable future. Afghanistan itself has zero economic value. Trade with Pakistan is hardly something that will make India salivate. At its height, the total trade with Pakistan was around $2.5 billion when Imran Khan severed all trade connections. Even if this number was doubled or tripled, it would still be less than 1 percent of India’s total foreign trade. In short, Pakistan doesn’t count for anything in India’s economic calculations or her economic future.
Finally, apart from pious sentiments and hollow words coming out of Pakistan, there is absolutely nothing on ground to suggest that it is genuinely interested in peace and normalisation with India. The nation knows that it is in a really tough spot. The last thing it needs at this stage is rising tensions with India. But this doesn’t mean that Pakistan is ready to roll over and play dead. Quite to the contrary, Pakistan will follow a dual policy: it will talk peace but keep exporting terrorism and subversion into India, albeit at a level that is well below India’s tolerance threshold. This is exactly what it is doing. Infiltration attempts are continuing, weapons and drugs are being dropped through drones, hostile propaganda is unceasing, and support for Khalistani elements is unabated. These are not the actions of a state that is ready to turn a new leaf and normalise relations.
India has Pakistan right where she wants it. What Pakistan’s Praetorian Guard and its politicians and policymakers have done to it is something India could only dream of. The troubles that surround Pakistan are going nowhere, which is great for India. What people in India need to understand is that they can’t rescue Pakistan from itself. India neither has the capacity nor the capability to do this. Most of all, it has no reason to even attempt it. When an enemy is facing existential crises, it will be most foolish to either disturb it or rescue it.
What India needs to do is prepare for an eventuality when the state starts to melt down. Even if that doesn’t happen, India has the time and space to enhance its comprehensive national power and widen the power differential with Pakistan to a point where the nation is scared to even become a nuisance. Of course, if an opportunity presents itself where Pakistan sues for peace on India’s terms, then it is an opportunity that India should grab. It would, however, be a blunder of Himalayan proportions to be magnanimous and give Pakistan a face-saver by not settling issues and keeping them pending for a resolution 10 or 20 years down the line. Go for broke or let Pakistan get broken should be the guiding principle of India’s Pakistan policy.
The writer is Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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