The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects a “slight delay” in the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala. In a statement, the Met office said the monsoon is likely to arrive by June 4.
The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about 7 days.
“This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of 4 days,” the Met office said.
The monsoon reached the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
The monsoon, an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season, advances from Kerala to other parts of the country, providing relief to people from scorching heat.
The IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 18 years (2005-2022) were proved to be correct except in 2015.
Last month, the weather forecasting department predicted that India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions.
In India, around 52% of the net cultivated area relies on monsoon.
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