Even as gross domestic product (GDP) data for the April-June 2022 quarter is due for release on Wednesday (August 31), analysts have a wide range of growth forecasts from 13 per cent to 16.2 per cent. Rating agency Icra expects India’s GDP to grow 13 per cent in Q1FY23, State Bank of India (SBI) sees a 15.7 per cent growth, and the RBI forecasts it at 16.2 per cent.
ICRA’s GDP Forecast For FY23Q1
Rating agency Icra in its report has said India’s GDP growth in the first quarter of the current financial year 2022-23 is likely to grow 13 per cent, on the back of a low base and robust recovery in the contact-intensive sectors following the widening vaccination coverage.
Sector-wise, it expects the June 2022 quarter growth to be driven by the services sector (+17-19 per cent; +5.5 per cent in Q4 FY2022), followed by the industry (+9-11 per cent; +1.3 per cent). GVA growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing might decline to 1.0 per cent in Q1 FY2023 from 4.1 per cent in Q4 FY2022.
SBI’s Q1FY23 GDP Forecast
SBI Research in its report ‘Ecowrap’ has said India’s GDP is expected to be much higher in Q1FY23 and growth is expected around 15.7 per cent with a large possibility of an upward bias because several indicators have shown good progress in the Indian economy.
“As per our (SBI) ‘Nowcasting Model’, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY23 would be 15.7 pr cent, with an upward bias,” the report added. According to SBI composite leading indicator (CLI), which includes parameters from almost all the sectors based on monthly data, India’s GDP growth shows early signals of turning-points in the economic activity.
Reuters’ Poll On GDP Growth
Reuters in its report said India’s economy is forecast to have expanded by an annual 15.2 per cent in the June 2022 quarter. This expected double-digit growth rate in India will be up sharply from a reported 4.1 per cent growth rate in the preceding quarter.
According to the median forecast from an August 22-26 Reuters poll of 51 economists, India’s GDP growth is expected to rise 15.2 per cent in Q1 FY23, 6.2 per cent in Q2 FY23, 4.5 per cent in Q3 FY23, 4.2 per cent in Q4 FY23. This is as respectively compared with 15.1 per cent, 6.2 per cent, 4.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent in July poll.
RBI’s GDP Forecast For June 2022 Quarter
The RBI’s real GDP growth projection for 2022-23 stands at 7.2 per cent, with Q1 at 16.2 per cent; Q2 at 6.2 per cent; Q3 at 4.1 per cent; and Q4 at 4.0 per cent, and risks broadly balanced. Real GDP growth for Q1:2023-24 is projected at 6.7 per cent.
It, however, said elevated risks emanating from protracted geopolitical tensions, the upsurge in global financial market volatility and tightening global financial conditions continue to weigh heavily on the outlook.
Morgan Stanley recently also said India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in the Asian region in 2022-23. It expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to average 7 per cent during this period, the strongest among the largest economies.
In the fourth quarter of the financial year 2021-22 (Q4FY22), India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.1 per cent. For the full financial year 2021-22, the GDP saw a growth of 8.7 per cent.
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