Northwest India may be able to heave a sigh of relief – at least for a while – as another spell of rain is expected to keep the temperatures from rising further, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its latest forecast.
Maximum temperatures are currently below-normal by 2-4℃ over most parts of the country and likely to be near-normal for the next five days. “It is very unlikely that a heatwave impacts Northwest India at least till mid-April,” said IMD DG M Mohapatra on Saturday.
The weather department released its monthly outlook for the summer season and predicted above-normal maximum temperatures from April to June for most parts of India except for south peninsular India and some parts of Northwest India where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely.
Above-Normal Heatwave Days
It has also predicted above-normal heatwaves for the next three months. While Northwest India might escape the searing heatwaves in April, there is a higher probability of their occurrence over eastern India and parts of western coast- Gujarat and Maharashtra. According to IMD, east UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and north Chhattisgarh could see more heatwave days during April.
“These states could also witness below-normal rains in April, which could lead to higher temperatures especially during the second half of April. The intensity of the heatwaves is also likely to be high,” said Mohapatra.
WHY WAS MARCH COOLER?
After the hottest February on record, March turned out to be a surprise with relatively cooler days. Most parts of India experienced unusually-long spells of simultaneous thunderstorm activities covering a very large area of the country, accompanied by isolated thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds. Overall, the rains were 26% above normal.
As many as seven Western Disturbances (WD) impacted the region this March bringing rain and thunderstorms. They were further strengthened by the two anti-cyclonic systems over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea which provided additional moisture from the seas.
According to the weather department, April, too, is likely to get normal to above-normal rains, which is usually 39.2 mm as per the long-period average (LPA) of 1971-2020. This is again quite a contrast from last April, which ended up as one of the hottest April on record for most parts of India.
EL NINO
The IMD also seemed to allay the concerns over formation of El Nino – an ocean system that led to subpar monsoon. The forecast suggested ENSO-neutral conditions during April to June, and transition to El-Nino during July-September when the monsoon is under way.
When El Nino sets in, the surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean tend to get slightly warmer-than-usual. It has a tendency to weaken the summer monsoon during June to September and increase the chances of drought in several parts. However, IMD would release the first forecast of monsoon in mid-April.
Read all the Latest India News here
Comments
0 comment