New Delhi: Government on Monday acknowledged that while some foreign meteorological institutions have forecast a deficit rainfall during the monsoon season this year, two others in the US and the UK have suggested that it would be "above normal".
In a written reply to Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for Earth Science Ashwani Kumar said that the government "is aware of deficit monsoon seasonal rainfall forecast for June-September, 2012, by certain foreign institutions based on the simulation of dynamical models.
"As per the seasonal forecasts issues by the Frontier Research Institute, Japan in February 2012, India is expected to experience below normal rainfall during the coming monsoon season," said Kumar.
However, forecasts from the US National Centres for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) and UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) suggest above normal rainfall during the monsoon season, he noted.
The Minister, however, stated that these dynamic models predicting Indian monsoon seasonal rainfall have not yet reached satisfactory levels.
Explaining the accuracy of monsoon projections by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), he said, "The present level of operational acceptability of error of margin is of five per cent for the forecasts of all-India seasonal rainfall."
The IMD currently uses a suite of statistical models for monsoon prediction, but "we are examining the performances of coupled ocean-atmospheric models of US' NCEP and UKMO for their suitability of monsoon predictions", he said.
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