The Karnataka Debacle Effect: Will Karandlaje Replace Kateel As State BJP Chief? Who Could Be Oppn Leader?

Heads are expected to roll in the Karnataka Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unit after the ruling party’s abysmal performance in the assembly polls, results for which were declared on Saturday. News18 has learnt that state BJP president Nalin Kumar Kateel has offered to resign from the post, taking moral responsibility for the debacle. BJP sources say Union minister and senior BJP leader Shobha Karandlaje is pipped to be the next state president.

In its quest to balance the caste equation, the BJP is also searching for a suitable candidate to take up the role of Leader of Opposition. The emergence of the BJP as the primary opposition with 66 seats has led to the consideration of four top contenders for the position of leader of opposition.

“Not just Kateel, the entire BJP unit from the morcha level all the way to the top will be overhauled. This will happen only after the central leadership analyses what went wrong and why voters were not convinced that the BJP should be in power. The party needs a strong organiser and leader who can ensure the BJP wins 25 of the 28 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls," said a senior BJP functionary.

The incumbent chief minister of Karnataka, Basavaraj Bommai, while conceding defeat in the Karnataka assembly polls was the first to take responsibility.

Speaking to the media after the results, Bommai said, “…I take responsibility for this debacle. There are multiple reasons for this. We will find all the reasons and strengthen the party once again for the general elections."

Bommai sprung another surprise, saying that Kateel will continue as the state BJP president until the 2024 elections, a statement that the BJP insiders say was inappropriate and inaccurate.

SEARCH FOR OPPN LEADER

With the party considering Karandlaje, a Vokkaliga, for the post of state president, the BJP will also have to keep the Lingayat support intact.

According to a BJP source, Bommai, a Lingayat and outgoing CM with over three years of administrative experience, is a strong contender. His Lingayat identity and experience make him an ideal candidate to defend the party and launch an attack against the government now led by the Congress.

S Suresh Kumar, a Brahmin and former Law Minister, who has been elected from Rajajinagar for multiple terms, is another strong contender. Known for his sharp political acumen, discipline, intellect, and integrity, he could stand as a formidable LoP.

Arvind Bellad, a dynamic and young Lingayat MLA from Hubli-Dharwad West, is also in the running. His caste background, coupled with his strategy and organizational skills, has caught the attention of the central leadership.

Finally, V Sunil Kumar, a former minister and MLA from Karkala belonging to the influential Billava (Idiga) community, is also a contender. He has climbed up the ranks in the party and is a well-respected leader.

Although B Y Vijayendra‘s name has been floated, his lack of experience may be a disadvantage. Ultimately, the BJP will have to carefully consider all factors and choose the most suitable candidate to lead the party as the primary opposition.

WHO IS KATEEL?

Kateel, a three-time MP from Dakshina Kannada who took charge as the state BJP unit president after B S Yediyurappa, was the party’s surprise choice when he was appointed in August 2019. Deeply rooted in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and known to be closely associated with BJP general secretary (organization) B L Santhosh, Kateel’s tenure has been riddled with criticism of being inaccessible and ineffective.

The BJP workers were surprised again when the central leadership extended the tenure of Kateel, whose term ended in August 2022, keeping in mind the 2023 assembly polls.

It is learnt they felt that changing the party president just as the state was heading to polls would send a wrong signal to the cadre and they would take time to fire up and acclimatize to the new chief.

This move boomeranged.

Kateel’s inaccessibility as the state president, his statements — “The Karnataka elections were not to be fought not on roads and other issues, but on Tipu versus Savarkar", “love jihad" and “those who support Tipu are not fit to live in India" — clearly struck the wrong chord.

WRONG TONE

Many booth-level workers told News18 that they were unable to convince voters about development when the tone of “communal" politics was being set from the top.

Sources told News18 that several of their internal reports indicated that the BJP was not only fighting anti-incumbency in at least 100 seats, but was unable to match the tone of the campaign set by the Congress against corruption under the Bommai government.

“There was a false sense of confidence and party workers on the ground were fatigued by voting day, as people were convinced that they had to vote corruption out. This time, the BJP was seen as the one that did nothing to stop it," said a senior BJP MLA, who was one of the 66 who won their seats.

THREE FACTORS

There are three major reasons for the BJP’s failure in this election, said political analyst S A Hemanth.

“The BJP did not effectively refute corruption, the perception that the person heading the government and the party had been inefficient, corrupt and unreachable made it worse," he said.

“The third and most important aspect was an overreliance on central leaders and making the concept of double-engine government redundant. The second engine was not functional at all. It was flying only on one engine."

“The state of Karnataka BJP unit can be described in one line from the famous 1963 Hindi blockbuster Dil Hi to Hain — ‘Laaga chunari main daag….chupaaoo kaise’. This daag (stain) of corruption is going to be very tough to remove for the BJP until they take several stringent steps, including a complete state unit overhaul, to start their 2024 Lok Sabha campaign with a clean slate," said Hemanth.