More Than 145 Million Electric Vehicles Will be on the Road Worldwide by 2030, 15X from Today

The number of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids on the road worldwide could reach 145 million by 2030. While this is a low estimate, it is nearly 15 times more than today. If this target of 145 million electric vehicles (excluding two-wheelers) is reached, it will represent 7% of the global vehicle fleet, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The current number of electrified vehicles (100% electric or plug-in hybrids) is estimated at just over 10 million, nearly half of which are being driven in China.

In 2020, a record number of electric cars were sold, about 3 million, and this is just the beginning, as every year this score is likely to be smashed. By all projections, the sales momentum is expected to be the same in China, Europe and even the US.

The estimated figure of 145 million electric vehicles on the road in 2030 is actually quite low, with some projections calling for more than 200 million on the road within 10 years. According to the IEA, it will all depend on the willingness of various governments to help individuals and businesses purchase such vehicles as well as set up infrastructure to easily and conveniently charge them.

Another report stated that the main obstacle for drivers interested in getting on board with this new generation of cars is the fact that the price of electric vehicles is expected to drop considerably in the years to come. The tipping point should come, at the latest, in 2027. At that time, these cars are set to become, on average, less expensive than equivalent gasoline and diesel models.

According to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) for the NGO Transport and Environment (T&E), within 5 to 7 years the trends in prices should shift depending on the type of vehicle. Specifically, electric-engine light commercial vehicles such as vans should be as inexpensive to produce as combustion vehicles in this segment by 2025. The same phenomenon should be seen for sedans and SUVs in 2026 and small, city cars in 2027. An electric sedan will cost an average of nearly 40,000 euros (equivalent to about US$49,700) excluding taxes in 2020, twice as much as a gasoline or diesel model.

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