Tamluk Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Can TMC Avenge Mamata's Nandigram Defeat or Will BJP's Ex-Judge Gamble Pay Off?

The Tamluk Lok Sabha constituency is one of 42 parliamentary constituencies in West Bengal. It is a General category seat and comprises part of Purba Medinipur district. Seven Assembly segments fall under the Tamluk Lok Sabha seat, of which the Trinamool Congress currently holds four (Tamluk, Panskura Purba, Nandakumar and Mahisadal) while the BJP holds three (Moyna, Haldia-SC and Nandigram).

Polling Date — May 25, 2024; Phase 6

Sitting MP — Dibyendu Adhikari (then with the TMC)

Candidates — Abhijit Gangopadhyay (BJP), Debangshu Bhattacharya (TMC), Sayan Bannerjee (CPM)

Political Dynamics

• In Tamluk, a fierce confrontation is on between the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, with the former seeking retribution for Mamata Banerjee’s loss in Nandigram in 2021 Assembly elections and the saffron party striving to fortify its stronghold.
• The political rivalry has been intensified with the choice of candidates, especially that of the BJP. The opposition party has fielded former Calcutta High Court judge Abhijit Gangopadhyay, who joined the party immediately after resigning. The TMC has fielded young Turk Debangshu Bhattacharya.
• The CPI(M) is also in the fray and has fielded another young leader, Sayan Banerjee.
• The contest, however, would come down to the BJP and the TMC, with the former said to be ahead in the race at present with his anti-corruption pitch.
• BJP’s Surprise But Strong Pick: The saffron party stunned observers when it inducted Abhijit Gangopadhyay into the party days after he resigned as a judge of the Calcutta High Court, and gave him the ticket for Tamluk.
• Though Gangopadhyay is not the first to trade in the courtroom for the political arena, the absence of a cooling-off period between his two innings is what raised eyebrows.
• The TMC has attacked Abhijit Gangopadhyay’s political inexperience, questioning how someone who grew up in a metropolis can serve the people of rural areas.
• Countering the attack, the BJP says the former judge’s lack of political experience serves as an advantage, emphasizing his commendable personal attributes.
• Gangopadhyay enjoyed immense popularity even when he was a Calcutta High Court judge. He was mobbed for selfies at a book fair and desperate job seekers would often turn up at his residence late at night as the “last resort for justice”.
• Even as corruption allegations haunt the TMC across Bengal, Gangopadhyay’s tough rulings on scams and sentencing of top ministers in graft cases make him one of BJP’s strongest candidates in the state.
• EC Notice to Gangopadhyay: On May 17, the Election Commission issued a show-cause notice to Abhijit Gangopadhyay for “improper, injudicious and undignified” remarks against Mamata Banerjee.
• In a purported video that surfaced a few days ago, Gangopadhyay was heard wondering about “the amount at which Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is getting sold,” triggering a row.
• The TMC labelled it as BJP’s “guarantee of disrespecting women”, while the saffron party raised doubts about the clip’s authenticity and dubbed it as a “ploy by the TMC to release fake videos” to malign the saffron camp.
• The EC notice said Gangopadhyay’s comment has been found to be “improper, injudicious, beyond dignity in every sense of the term, in bad taste” and prima facie violative of the provisions of the Model Code of Conduct and its advisory to political parties. The EC has sought a response by 5pm on May 20.
• Legal Trouble: Earlier this month, the police registered an FIR registered against Abhijit Gangopadhyay at the Tamluk Police Station under various non-bailable sections of the Indian Penal Code and the Arms Act, on a complaint filed by a section of the 25,753 teaching and non-teaching staff who lost their jobs following a High Court order.
• One of the charges invoked is attempt to murder under Section 307 of the IPC.
• The root of the complaint was a procession by BJP supporters in Tamluk when Gangopadhyay was going to file his nomination on May 4.
• Tensions rose as the procession passed through the area where some dismissed school staff were protesting against the Calcutta High Court’s order.
• Gangopadhyay approached the Calcutta High Court, praying for quashing of the FIR.
• His counsel said Gangopadhyay had gone to file his nomination in the collector’s office and had nothing to do with the alleged incident, but despite that his name appeared in the FIR.
• On May 16, the Calcutta High Court put an interim stay on action by the police, resulting in major relief for Gangopadhyay amid campaigning.
• TMC Out to Avenge Nandigram: Nandigram, where the anti-land acquisition movement in 2007 against the then Left Front government was instrumental in the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress’s rise to power in 2011 in Bengal, is in Tamluk Lok Sabha constituency.
• The enmity between Mamata Banerjee and BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, epitomised by the latter’s victory in Nandigram in the 2021 Assembly polls by 1,956 votes, has fuelled the TMC’s resolve to avenge the defeat.
• An election petition filed by Mamata Banerjee is pending before the Calcutta High Court challenging the declaration of Adhikari’s victory.
• According to TMC’s Tamluk MLA Saumen Mahapatra, the party has made strides in the region in zilla parishad and municipal polls conducted after the 2021 Assembly elections.
• Mahapatra claims the TMC maintains a lead of 77,000 votes over the BJP in the Tamluk Lok Sabha constituency and a margin of approximately 13,000 votes in Nandigram.
• The party’s biggest disadvantage in Tamluk remains the lack of local leadership since Suvendu Adhikari’s departure. He was Mamata Banerjee’s point-person in the region and she was solely dependent on him to hold the fort.
• ‘Khela Hobe’ Candidate: In its quest to avenge Mamata Banerjee’s Nandigram loss, the TMC has fielded its 27-year-old social media head Debangshu Bhattacharya who is known for the party’s ‘Khela Hobe’ campaign theme during the 2021 West Bengal elections.
• Bhattacharya is a known face in television debates and has frequently spoken out against the BJP-led central government.
• Earlier this year, he led the TMC charge against the Union Home Ministry for seeking a report from the West Bengal government on the attacks on Enforcement Directorate teams in the state.
• While both the BJP and CPM candidates have made corruption their biggest election plank, the TMC candidate is highlighting his youth to gain the confidence of the voters.
• CPM Challenger: Putting up a fight to regain its long-lost bastion, the CPM has fielded Calcutta High Court lawyer Sayan Banerjee who embodies both the youth factor as well as an anti-corruption crusader image.
• Though way behind former judge Gangopadhyay in national popularity, Sayan Banerjee, a fresher in politics, has become quite popular in the civil society for his forceful arguments in the High Court in favour of the illegally deprived candidates in the school jobs case.
• But for the CPM candidate, it would be an uphill climb to convince voters that the Left Front can be an alternative to both BJP and Trinamool Congress.
• Voting Pattern: Tamluk had been a traditional Left citadel from 1980, except once in the 1996 Lok Sabha polls when Congress candidate Jayanta Bhattacharya got elected by a margin of less than 8,000 votes.
• However, in 2009, Tamluk became the virtual fort of Trinamool Congress, with Suvendu Adhikari being the game-changer. He defeated three-time sitting CPM Lok Sabha member Lakshman Chandra Seth by a margin of over 1,50,000 votes.
• In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Adhikari’s younger brother Dibyendu Adhikari, as a TMC candidate, had bagged a little over 50% votes, while the BJP nominee got nearly 37% votes in Tamluk. The CPI(M) had bagged about 9.4%.
• In 2020, Suvendu Adhikari once again changed the political trajectory of the constituency, switching over to the BJP in 2020 in a massive blow to Mamata Banerjee.
• As a result, in the 2021 West Bengal elections, the BJP clinched victory in three out of the seven Assembly seats within the Lok Sabha constituency, while the TMC secured triumph in the remaining four.
• Notably, several segments had witnessed intense competition between the two parties, with winning margins falling below 2,000 votes in at least four constituencies – Tamluk, Moyna, Mahisadal, and Nandigram.
• Adhikari Influence: The Adhikari family, reputed for its influence across significant areas of Purba Medinipur, including Tamluk constituency, dissociated from the TMC and allied with the saffron party following Suvendu Adhikari’s entry into the BJP in December 2020.
• Sisir Adhikari, the patriarch of the family, secured victory in neighbouring Kanthi constituency for three consecutive elections until 2019 under the TMC banner.
• Presently, his youngest son Soumendu Adhikari is contesting from the same seat as a BJP candidate.
• Political observers say the Adhikari family influence remains strong across significant portions of Purba Medinipur.
• Suvendu Adhikari’s strategic campaigning for Abhijit Gangopadhyay underscores the BJP’s determination to consolidate its position in the region.
• The party is confident of a shift in votes from the TMC to itself, with its Moyna MLA Ashok Dinda proclaiming that Gangopadhyay would secure victory by a substantial margin exceeding 2.5 lakh votes.
• Muslim Votes: Tamluk has around 14-15% Muslim voters. According to political experts, this vote-bank may consolidate in favour of Trinamool Congress yet again.
• But the BJP hasn’t given up on this segment yet. As per ground reports, a team of Adhikari’s local supporters have started making an outreach among the Muslims voters in the area.
• The leaders in Nandigram and in other segments even hosted Iftar parties for the local Muslim leaders and clerics.
• Adhikari’s plans involve more thrust on the Hindu-dominated Assembly segments and raising the share of Muslim voters who supported him in Nandigram.
• Local political observers predict an 80:10:10 split in Muslim votes for the TMC, BJP and CPM, respectively.
• Women With Didi: Women voters in Tamluk are said to be very happy with Mamata Banerjee’s ‘Lakshmi Bhandar’ scheme, under which they get a monthly allowance of Rs 500.
• In fact, all cash schemes for women voters — Lakshmi Bhandar, Kanyashree and Rupashree — have worked wonders for the chief minister.

Key Constituency Issues

• Stagnating Employment: Lack of industrialisation, investment and the resulting unemployment despite being home to industrial establishments like the Haldia port, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) refinery, and Haldia Petrochemicals has left the youth quite disillusioned in the parliamentary constituency.
• According to sources, much of this ire bodes negatively for the ruling TMC, with the BJP backing up its promises with the development record of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre and other party-ruled states.
• During campaigning, all three candidates have emphasised the need to generate employment opportunities for the youth in the constituency.
• BJP candidate Abhijit Gangopadhyay has pledged to attract more industries to the area to foster job creation.
• Similarly, TMC’s Debangshu Bhattacharya has committed to enhancing job prospects in the constituency.
• CPI(M) candidate Sayan Banerjee has criticised the TMC for the exodus of industries from Bengal, advocating the Left Front as the beacon of hope for the state’s youth.
• Corruption: Across West Bengal, the TMC is battling the perception that corruption and scams have taken deep root in the party and its governance.
• The controversy and legal tussles over the school job recruitment scam could not have come at a worse time for the Mamata Banerjee-led party, especially in Tamluk where its main challenger is the judge who had ordered a CBI probe into alleged irregularities in the recruitment process.
• School Job Recruitment Scam: The Calcutta High Court had on April 22 invalidated the appointment of 25,753 teachers and non-teaching staff in state-run and state-aided schools of West Bengal.
• The TMC government challenged the Calcutta High Court order, saying it cancelled the appointments “arbitrarily”.
• On May 7, the Supreme Court termed the alleged recruitment scam as “systemic fraud” and said authorities were duty-bound to maintain the digitised records pertaining to the appointment of the teachers and non-teaching staff.
• Though the top court stayed the Calcutta High Court verdict of invalidating the appointments, the ordeal has helped bolster the BJP’s allegations of corruption and job stagnation against the TMC government.
• A large number of school-job-deprived candidates come from East Midnapore district and many from Tamluk, making it a big election issue here that can go against the TMC.
• Violence: East Medinipur, and Nanigram in particular, is no stranger to violence. The region is scarred by previous bouts of turmoil and is engulfed in fear and apprehension before every panchayat election.
• Violence revisited Purba Medinipur this April when a vehicle carrying officials from the National Investigation Agency (NIA) was attacked by villagers in Bhupatinagar area when they had gone to investigate a 2022 bomb blast case.
• The incident came weeks after the January 5 attack when Enforcement Directorate officials in Sandeshkhali area of North 24 Parganas, bolstering BJP allegations of use of muscle-power by TMC leaders.
• Mamata Banerjee has claimed that it was the NIA officials who attacked villagers and not the other way round.

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