Findings of the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS survey are based on a post-poll survey conducted in 346 villages or urban locations that fall in 87 of the 177 Assembly constituencies where polling has been completed in the first three phases of election.
The post poll survey enables strict randomisation of respondents, which is not possible in an Exit poll, and therefore requires a smaller sample.
A total of 4,898 respondents were interviewed soon after the day of polling. The respondents were interviewed face-to face at their home in using a structured interview schedule.
These interviews are spread across 346 locations in the regions where election have been completed in the first three phases of election.
The sample was fairly representative of the social diversity of the known attributes of the areas covered.
It included 20 per cent urban, (against 21 per cent in the state), 18 per cent Dalits (against 22 per cent in the state) and 18 per cent Muslims (against 18 per cent in the state).
The proportion of women was significantly lower at 39 per cent women, (against 47 per cent in the state), but its effect on vote share was insignificant and hence did not require a correction.
The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by AK Verma (Uttar Pradesh Central) and Mirza Asmer Beg (Uttar Pradesh West).
Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) Delhi directed the survey.
The Central team which designed, coordinated and analysed the survey comprised Yogendra Yadav, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A. Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Sanjeer Alam, Praveen Rai and Vikas Gautam of CSDS and Rajeeva L Karandikar of Cranes Software International Limited.
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