Party banking on Jaya to turn the tide

TIRUCHY: As the tendency to vote for the ruling party appears to neutralise the electoral arithmetic, which slightly favours the DMK, the votes of minorities and Dalits will decide the poll outcome in Tiruchy West here. Among the nearly two lakh voters in the constituency, minorities and Dalits account for about 70,000. Among the backward communities, the AIADMK appears to have more support than the DMK. However, the Muslim voters who supported the AIADMK last time, are uncertain this time. Two factors that endeared the Muslim voters to the AIADMK in the Assembly polls are absent this time. Last time, the AIADMK had a strong candidate from the Muslim community in former minister Mariyampitchai. Secondly, the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, which has grown popular among Muslims, was with the AIADMK. The community has about 25,000 votes in the constituency, which will be around one-eighth of the total electorate. The DMK still holds sway over a chunk of Muslim votes, while the AIADMK so far has not come out with specific measures or strategy to retain the Muslim votes, the party secured last time. Among the 20,000 Christian voters, the traditional DMK voters remain unchanged, while those with Congress leanings are not showing signs of backing the AIADMK till now. Dalits, the traditional stronghold of AIADMK, too are undecided, following a PT campaign, which harps on Paramakkudi incident. The ministers camping in the constituency are relying on the popularity of Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and promises of better infrastructure, facilities and prompt delivery of populist schemes. For them, facilities like water, roads, health care, education and populist schemes matter most in a by-poll. The preference for the ruling party in a by-poll will prevail over caste and religious equations, as per their calculations. Above all, the party functionaries are relying on their leader’s charismatic appeal which cuts across caste and religion. The party activists feel that Jayalalithaa’s visit on Oct 9 will swing the momentum in AIADMK’s favour and relegate electoral arithmetic to past statistics having no bearing on the present scenario.