How T20 is Changing Cricket

The game of cricket is measured by the currency of runs and wickets. Matches are won by the team which scores more runs than the opposition. This statement considers only the end result of the match and not intangible factors like entertainment, elegance, sportsmanship etc. There are 3 formats in cricket and each has its own unique appeal and charm. Test cricket is still regarded by pundits and purists as the format that tests a player’s skill the most. Some critics still scoff at the Twenty20 version calling it slam bang cricket and just a way to earn astronomical amounts of money without necessarily testing a player’s variety of skills, temperament and adaptability that Test cricket demands. There is no doubt that the money generated from T20 cricket has developed infrastructure and helped sustain interest in certain countries. In this podcast we analyse the influence of T20 cricket and how it has shaped results and the way Test and ODI cricket are played.

The first Test match was played in 1877 and Test cricket was the only format that existed in international cricket till 1971. From 1971 till 2005 there existed 2 formats of cricket till T20 cricket was introduced in England in 2003. The first T20I was played between Australia and New Zealand on 17^th February 2005. Till the 1^st WT20 which was played in September 2007, T20Is were played sporadically with just a few bilateral matches squeezed in. However, post the WT20 in 2007, T20Is have been played with increasing regularity even leading to fears that it could drive Test cricket to extinction. Thankfully, that fear has proved to be unfounded and cricket has somehow found a way to keep all 3 formats relevant.

From 1877 till the 1^st World War there were 134 Tests played with 110 having a decisive result and 24 being drawn. This equates to 82 % of matches having a decisive result. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that there was exciting cricket played during that time as the wickets were heavily skewed in favour of bowlers in those days. During those days wickets were uncovered and batting on those pitches was extremely challenging with a lot of matches ending without reaching the final day. Now let us look at the period after the first World War till the advent of the Second World War. During this period there were 140 Tests played out of which 88 had a decisive result while 52 were drawn. This equates to 62.8% of Tests having a decisive result. This figure has decreased from the figure of 82% prior to WWI, due to the improvement in the quality of pitches.

If we then consider the period from the end of World War 2 till the advent of ODIs in January 1971, there were 401 Tests played with 237 having a decisive result, with 163 drawn and 1 ending in a tie. This equates to 59.1 % which is pretty similar to the percentage between WWI and WW2. Since the first ODI was played on 5^th January 1971 and the first T20I was played on 17^th February 2005, lets analyse the results in Tests between 1971 to 2005. There were 1061 Tests played during this time frame with 675 ending in a decisive result, 385 ending in a draw and 1 being tied. This equates to 63.2% of Tests having a decisive result. So, we can see that apart from the earliest era of cricket (for which there were mitigating circumstances), the % of Tests across eras which had a decisive result varied from 59 to 63% which is almost similar and that even the advent of ODIs did not result in the % of decisive results in Tests increasing by much. The run rate in Test cricket from March 1877 till the 1^st ODI in January 1971 was 2.53 across 675 Tests. This run rate increased from 2.53 to 2.88 from 5^th January 1971 till 17^th February 2005 which translates to an increase of 13.8%. This is quite a huge increase in the rate of run scoring and the influence of ODI cricket can be attributed as the main reason for this.

From February 2005 till the end of the 2^nd Test between Australia and Sri Lanka in February 2019 there have been 609 Test matches played with 471 ending in a decisive result. This translates to 77.34% of Tests having a decisive result which is a huge increase from the corresponding figure between 1971 and 2005. Therefore, the influence of T20 cricket as had a huge impact in the way Test cricket is played. The run rate during the time frame from February 2005 till February 2019 has increased from 2.88 to 3.25 which is an increase of 12.85% from the previous period. So, T20 cricket has had a massive impact in results in Tests, much more than the impact that the first 34 years of ODI cricket had on Tests in terms of percentages of Tests with a decisive result.

Let us consider the last 5 complete calendar years in Tests from 2014 till 2018. In these 5 years there have been 226 Tests played and 190 of them have ended with a decisive result, which equates to 84%. Therefore, we can conclude that T20 cricket has had an even bigger impact on Tests as the game has evolved. If we consider the entire 14-year span from the 1^st T20I till currently, there have been 77.34% with a decisive result but if we consider just the last 5 years, the figure rises to an amazing 84%. The % of Tests with a decisive result in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 are 80.49, 79.07, 85.1, 85.1 and 89.6 per cent respectively. In fact, in 2018 out of the 5 draws in Tests, in 3 of them the full quota of 450 overs (444 plus 6 for change of innings) were not bowled and in another Test, 430 overs were bowled with just the 3^rd innings of the match in progress. So just 2 out of the 48 Tests where overs were not lost ended in stalemates due to teams been unable to force a result. These are incredible numbers and augur well for the future of Tests. The last thing people want is for Tests to meander along to pointless draws and if Tests are to compete with T20Is, then they have to be entertaining contests with quick run rates and decisive results, rather than meandering along to stalemates at the end of 5 days. If we consider purely circumstantial evidence then we can say that as formats like ODIs and T20Is have evolved then batsmen have begun to score at a much quicker rate which has made for exciting viewing and led to more result-oriented Tests. On the flip side, batsmen have lost the patience to apply themselves and grind it out in the 4^th innings on deteriorating pitches and the number of rearguard innings by batsmen to draw the Test for their side by gritting it out on the 5^th day has fallen significantly.

Now, let us turn our attention to ODIs. ODIs have been played in international cricket for the last 48 years and run rates have increased exponentially over the last few years. We divide these 48 years into 3 different eras. One from January 1971 till the start of the 1996 World Cup, the second from the start of the 1996 World Cup till February 2005, and the third from February 2005 till currently. The reason for considering matches before and after the 1996 World Cup is that teams started approaching the first 15 overs differently from that year onwards by taking advantage of the field restrictions and that led to higher scores whereas prior to that year teams used to play conservatively initially and then go berserk in the slog overs. Without being disrespectful to the minnows, let us consider only the results of the top 8 teams in ODIs as considering all teams could paint a skewed picture. Also, no results and ties have been excluded from this analysis.

From 1971 till the start of the 1996 World Cup there have been 976 ODIs played between the top 8 teams and a score of 250 and more was scored by the side batting first on 210 occasions (21.5%), out of which 158 ended in a win for the side batting first and 51 ended for a win by the side chasing the target. That equates to the side batting first winning 75.6% of the time when it bats first and scores 250 and more, while the side chasing wins 24.4% of the time. However, if we shift the cut-off to 300 scored by the side batting first, then incredibly the side batting first has won on all the 30 occasions it has posted 300 or more on the board, while the side chasing first hasn’t managed to overhaul the target even once. Also, the side batting first scored 300 or more once in every 32 ODIs ( 3%) which is very rare but such a total guaranteed a win.

If we consider the period from 14 February 1996 till 16^th February 2005, there have been 799 ODIs played. The side batting first has scored 250 or more on 319 occasions (39.9%) out of which 311 have ended in a decisive result. The side batting first has won on 222 occasions while the side chasing has won on 89 occasions. This equates to the side batting first winning 71.4% of the time while the side chasing winning 28.6% of the time. This shows that a 250 plus total was not as impregnable post the 1996 World Cup. Moreover, a total of 250 or more was scored by the side batting first nearly 56% more frequently than the pre-1996 era. If we shift the cutoff to a total of 300 or more by the side batting first in the post 1996 era till February 2005, we find that it has occurred on 74 occasions which is 9.2% of the time. This shows that a total of 300 or more by the side batting first is 206% more frequent than the previous era. But the side chasing has won 16.2% of the time as opposed to 0% in the previous era.

In the last era from 17^th February 2005 till 07^Th February 2019 there have been 1064 ODIs played and the team batting first has scored 250 or more on 570 occasions (53.57%) with 553 having a decisive result. The team batting first has won 68% of the time while the team chasing has won 32% of the time. This shows that the % of successful chases in the T20 era is increasing with a 250 plus total increasingly likely to be overhauled. If we apply the cutoff to totals of 300 or more, the team batting first has scored 300 or more on 241 occasions (22.65%) out of which 80% have been won by the side batting first and 20% by the side chasing.

To summarize, the probability of a side batting first scoring 300 has increased from 3% to 9% to 22.65% across the 3 eras, which is an exponential increase in the frequency of posting 300 plus totals. As far as chasing the 300 plus totals successfully are concerned the percentages increase from never being achieved to 16.2% to 20% across the 3 eras.

Thus, we can conclude that T20 cricket has led to a steep increase in run rates in both Tests and ODIs and has made for more exciting cricket. It has also led to more decisive results in Tests with hardly any Test in which the full 450 overs being bowled petering out to a draw. This has led to more spectator riveting contests in both Tests and ODIs.

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