As the rest of the country is witnessing a fall in Covid cases, focus is being drawn towards Kerala whose daily tally has been rapidly rising ever since the third week of June, leading to the fear of an imminent third wave. Kerala reported more than 22,000 new cases on Thursday, which is more than 50% of the peak witnessed during the second wave of infections in mid-May.
The steady rise in infections in Kerala is posing a big challenge to the state’s overstretched health system and exposing the government to opposition attacks. Kerala was the first state to report a Covid case in the country in January 2020 and the pandemic has shown no signs of abating here in the last three months, health ministry statistics show.
The total number of active cases in the country is 4,03,000 of which 1,50,000 alone are from Kerala.
According to government sources, Kerala has also been reporting high number of daily Covid deaths since the first week of June, which also saw daily new deaths as high as 227. Even today, the state is seeing 150 deaths a day.
Kerala in mid-May 2021 was reporting a high of more than 43,000 new cases every day. This number started declining from mid-May 2021 to first week of June 2021. However, from the third week of June to date, daily new cases in Kerala have seen a gradual and consistent increase. Kerala’s average daily new cases in the last eight weeks has seen a 13% increase.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has said the situation is under control. “Second wave started late in the state and about 50% of the state population are yet to contract the virus. So we expected this increase.” He said there was a shortage of vaccines which was delaying the state’s universal inoculation programme. In an interview, state Health Minister Veena George said the trend was “not unusual”.
Some experts have blamed the government for the increase in cases while others point to the fact that the “spike” is not a steep rise. They also said low testing rate, obsession with rapid antigen tests and over dependence on bureaucracy was among the reasons responsible for slowing down Kerala’s fight against the pandemic.
The state has witnessed a range of 97 to 174 average daily new deaths in the last eight weeks. The weekly positivity trend in Kerala has been between 10.5% to 14.8% in the last two months.
According to a sero-survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) between June 14 and July 6, Kerala with 44.4% has lowest Covid antibodies. According to experts, 44.4% who showed antibodies would also include those who were vaccinated.
A team headed by National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) director SK Singh will reach Kerala on July 30 and visit districts reporting a high case positivity rate, the Health Ministry said in a statement. The state will undergo a complete lockdown on July 31 and August 1 due to the fear of imminent third wave.
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