2 Days, 4 States: For BJP, Victory in 2024 Hinges on a New Goal Post. PM Modi's Southern Sojourn is Proof

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is clearly focused on launching his campaign from the southern part of India in preparation for the 2024 parliamentary elections. The significance of his two-day southern sojourn across four states to kick off various projects lies in the fact that he has decided to take the weekend off from Gujarat to travel to Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh — two of which are heading towards assembly elections in 2023.

PM Modi’s message and the meaning during this trip are one and the same — to ensure that southern India becomes a BJP bastion and the North-South divide is diminished.

As political scientist Sandeep Shastri puts it, “A pattern has emerged. In 2014, the BJP was focused on North India, West India and Central India. Then in 2019, the focus was on Eastern India and North-East India. Clearly, it is the turn of the South in 2024."

Calling Karnataka and Telangana the two starting points where the BJP sees its best chance, Shastri also points out that PM Modi’s visit is part of the BJP’s larger pan-India plans to do well in the South, a region that the party has not been able to win over politically.

“Karnataka’s election is a few months away and Telangana also will face elections in less than a year. Both states will face polls before the 2024 Lok Sabha battle and both elections are very important for the BJP. In Karnataka, they need to defend their government, while in Telangana, they have clearly emerged as the leading Opposition," Shastri told News18.

PM Modi’s first stop is Karnataka and he lands on the day the state celebrates ‘Kanakadasa Jayanti’ in honour of the 16th-century poet-saint revered across communities. As he sounds the poll bugle for Karnataka, the prime minister unveiled the 108-feet-tall statue of the founder of Bengaluru city Nadaprabhu Kempegowda, also called the “Statue of Prosperity", one that the BJP government in Karnataka takes pride in.

Two other important projects that were flagged off were the South’s first Vande Bharat Express and the Terminal-2 of the Kempegowda International Airport built at a cost of around Rs 5,000 crore. Along with the Vande Bharat, PM Modi also launched the Bharat Gaurav Kashi Darshan train.

“Although we have begun preparations for elections, PM Modi’s visit will bring in more vigour and energy amongst the karyakartas. The ‘josh’ is high and this will be one of the many more Karnataka visits by the PM. Each time he comes, a special kind of energy flows through us and we are sure that in 2023, Modi-ji will stand with us at Vidhan Soudha as a BJP chief minister takes oath," said a senior party leader.

Modi travels next to Tamil Nadu where the BJP has converted itself into a strong opposition voice while its ally AIADMK is trying to find its foothold with the growing internal conflict between leaders such as Edapadi Palaniswami, O Panneerselvam, and VK Sasikala. News18 had earlier reported how under the leadership of former IPS officer and now BJP state chief K Annamalai, the party has not only become stronger cadre-wise, but also found itself to be a comfortable space as the third most-important party in Tamil Nadu’s Dravidian politics.

“When Modi is in election mode, he is in election mode and nobody can stop him," said Chennai-based political analyst Sumanth C Raman on the significance of the prime minister’s visit. The BJP has identified two big targets in south India — Tamil Nadu and Telangana — where they plan to win with substantial numbers.

“If there are setbacks in the Hindi heartland, there needs to be an offset in terms of numbers from other states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Telangana etc where the upside is still available. PM Modi is coming right in the middle of the Gujarat campaign which is very significant," Raman said.

PM Modi will address the 36th convocation ceremony of Gandhigram Rural Institute in Tamil Nadu where more than 2,300 students of 2018-19 and 2019-20 batches will receive their degrees.

But it is Telangana, where the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) won the Munugode bypoll in a high-octane election aggressively fought between the TRS and the BJP, where the prime minister’s visit will be keenly followed.

The Munugode seat brought disappointment for the BJP as they were hopeful of wresting it and expanding the party’s base in southern Telangana. The prime minister’s visit at this time is crucial as the ruling TRS government and BJP have been at each other’s throats, especially after Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao alleged that the BJP had been poaching his MLAs.

The BJP’s strategy for India’s youngest state has been very calculative and local party leaders tell News18 that the BJP has the potential to unseat the TRS if they play their cards right.

“Inaugurating the Ramagundam Fertiliser plant indicates that PM Modi and the BJP will spare no opportunity to play politics and be visible. It will also help the local BJP leaders showcase it when people ask what they (BJP) have done for Telangana. This is the Modi regime’s prep work for Telangana before the 2023 assembly elections," commented Hyderabad-based political commentator Palwai Raghavendra Reddy.

Telangana’s 9,500-crore Ramagundam Fertiliser Plant will be dedicated by PM Modi to the nation. He will also inaugurate the Bhadrachalam Road-Sattupalli rail line built at a cost of around Rs 1,000 crore along with other road infrastructure projects worth over Rs 2,200 crore.

As the prime minister lays the foundation stone for projects worth over Rs 25,000 crore across the four southern states, Andhra Pradesh sees the highest worth of infrastructure and development work projects being inaugurated. These include the Andhra Pradesh section of six-lane Greenfield Raipur-Visakhapatnam Economic Corridor built at Rs 3750 crore, the U-field Onshore Deepwater block project of ONGC in Andhra Pradesh developed at a cost of more than Rs 2,900 crore, the 745-km-long Srikakulam Angul Natural Gas Pipeline Project of GAIL to be built at a cost of more than Rs 2,650 crore and modernisation and upgradation of Visakhapatnam Fishing Harbour.

While several of these projects have been in the pipeline for some time now, political commentators say Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy has planned for them to be launched by PM Modi to keep Centre-state relations cordial.

“Jagan Mohan Reddy is an invisible friend of PM Modi. Jagan is feeling the heat of not being able to implement any of the bifurcation-related promises that he made. Jagan had promised in 2019 that whichever government comes to power in the Centre, the state would force them to realise the bifurcation-related promises, including special category status, railway zone and development package for two backward regions. So, by getting PM Modi to Andhra Pradesh for these projects, Jagan feels he can get a breather," explained Vishakapatnam-based political commentator Gali Nagaraja.

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